What involves buying a player and why Arsenal fans both should and shouldn't get excited

I do not remember the last time I had a week so busy. However, this was also coupled with the fact next to nothing Arsenal-related was happening. The big news is probably Diaby leaving the Club after almost ten years. The Frenchman was recently listed as a free agent come July 1st. As @Arseblog rightly pointed out it doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll go, it just means he’s out of contract, he can still be offered a new one, but nonetheless I think he will be released. Which is very sad. Diaby is a brilliant footballer, he just couldn’t catch a break with injures ever since that horrible Dan Smith tackle left Abou’s ankle in tatters.

However, I’m not here to talk about Abou Diaby. Maybe I could have, but I feel I’m not the right man. I’ll leave you in the very capable hands of @7amkickoff instead. I’ll also list two of my favourite pics with Diaby below. As someone rightly noted, after this Abou is only a Katie Hopkins headbutt away from becoming a national hero.

Today, in the wake of all the transfer speculation, I wanted to concentrate on something else, namely: what factors are involved in purchasing a player. Of course it’s my own opinion, I do not possess the knowledge to exhaustively describe the whole process. I also won’t talk about things like “sorting out agent fees” because, frankly, it’s of little interest to both me and you, my dear readers.

Finally, I think we should all be looking forward to our summer acquisitions. I’m sure Arsene will make additions, even if those won’t be the ones we want/expect him to. I’ll elaborate on that last point a bit later. So here goes my vision.

Availability

Should be an obvious factor, but one which is nonetheless overlooked by many Arsenal fans. It’s understandable: we all want the best for our Club and as such are looking at the best players, who are, most of the time, either not up for grabs or out of our financial reach.

Yes, we are the mighty Arsenal, however we aren’t able to compete for players like Bale and Pogba. Not because these guys will necessarily be averse to the idea of joining us, rather because their sellers will likely have their heads turned by the likes of Real and City.

We do not have the financial muscle to compete with these giants. Simple as that. We might scream all we want how the players’ price tag rarely reflects the true value of the player, but it’s the harsh reality of today’s transfer market.

This makes me appreciate Arsene Wenger even more. For years (for almost two decades, actually) he has been able to find brilliant players for low to reasonable fees. He has shown he can splash the cash on players he really likes and badly wants to have on his team, but his general philosophy remains the same: buy and develop or buy a ready-made product for reasonable money:

“Santi has been voted man of the match (FA Cup Final). I think he has not cost £150m. Coquelin was one of the best on the pitch. You have to always look at the real quality of  people. I am not against  spending money. I have shown that recently. But I want a good rapport between price and quality.”

The domino effect

I haven’t tracked this pattern for longer than two years, however it can most definitely be said Ozil and Sanchez were acquired due to Arsene’s ability to see two steps ahead and bide his time. Oh, and count Welbeck in. He may not be as flashy or lucrative, but the principle is the same with him.

Ozil was bought after Bale’s addition made the German surplus to requirements at the Galacticos (Mesut Ozil. Surplus to requirements. How funny it sounds). Suarez to Barcelona made Sanchez to Arsenal possible. Falcao to United gave us the opportunity to snatch up Welbeck on deadline day.

In other words, sometimes being reactive pays off more than being proactive. If you are just keep your eyes open to what’s happening in the transfer market, you can reap the benefits

The Arsene Wenger effect

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it also pays off having a brilliant manager. Players not only want to play for certain clubs or for paychecks, they also want to be under the tutelage of certain managers. Arsene Wenger is one of these managers.

The phrase almost every our new player drops, the one about how happy he is to have the opportunity to work with Arsene Wenger, has become a punchline. Players are people, not robots (surprise, surprise!) and they too want to hear how needed they are, what plans Arsene has in store for them. All it sometimes takes is a conversation in German or the promise to play you in your preferred position:

"I thought: 'What he is telling me is what I have missed at Real: transparency, trust, respect. He told me exactly how he sees me [as a player], how he wants to use me, what he expects from me and what he hopes I will contribute."

Few managers can say they possess the charisma to attract players single-handedly. Arsene can. Appreciate it.

We may not expect it, but it surely will be good

Carl Jenkinson, Gervinho, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Joel Campbell, Park Chu-Young, Andre Santos, Mikel Arteta, Per Mertesacker, Thomas Eisfeld, Lukas Podolski, Olivier Giroud, Santi Cazorla, Nacho Monreal, Yaya Sanogo, Mathieu Flamini, Mesut Ozil, Mathieu Debuchy, Alexis Sanchez, David Ospina, Calum Chambers, Danny Welbeck, Gabriel Armando de Abreu, Krystian Bielik.

These are the players we’ve bought in the last four years. I didn’t go back further, as we were heavily pressed on the financial front and, barring occasional good players (like Koscielny, Vermaelen, Sagna, Arshavin and Ramsey) bought absolute poverty.

However, let’s return to the list at hand. I noticed two (really simple) patterns:

1. Few of these players truly flopped
2. Few of us expected Arsene to sign these exact players

But, I hear you say, are you calling Gervinho, Santos, Park Chu-Young and Yaya Sanogo successful transfers? What are you smoking?

Chill, I’m not saying these guys were great. However, there are two further things you have to keep in mind:

1. All these unsuccessful transfers (bar Sanogo) happened four years ago, in one window
2. None of them cost us much

Gervinho is our most expensive failure. He cost 10 million. Santos is 2nd, cost 6 million. And even their uselessness is debatable. Both had good spells at the Club, they just didn’t adapt in the end. In an era where clubs are willing to spend 50 million on Kane or Sterling, where Balotelli and Falcao (flops if there ever were any) cost 16 and 20 mil respectively, I think you can forgive Arsene a couple of not wholly successful players for such meagre sums.

Sanogo and Flamini cost us nothing. Campbell (and the jury is still out on him) cost us 1 million.

The point I’m trying to get across? Arsene makes bloody good acquisitions. Especially when he has the money. Look at our last three years. Bar Sanogo and Flamini and maybe Podolski, ALL of the players Arsene bought are invaluable. They are all successful. All have a future at the club, whether short-term (due to age, like Cazorla) or long-term.

Finally, expect the unexpected. I do not remember the last time Arsene bought a player which was hyped up by the fans and media alike, but, as I’ve demonstrated above, Arsene has a penchant for making bloody good transfers. If Arsene buys someone, he’ll be a success.

Closing comments

You may shed a tear or two upon reading this article. If my logic is anything to go by (and I think it is), we won’t buy Martinez. Or Benzema. We may not even buy Schneiderlin or Cech.

But we will buy players. And these players will be good players. So take a seat and grab the popcorn. The show is about to begin.

Until later

Olivier Giroud or the art of perception

One of the interesting traits of human nature is that we tend to look for confirmation of our views. We also seem to be pretty consistent in our views: that means we don’t change and adapt them each time we find out something new, something that disproves our theory.

It is normal: Thomas Bayes, an English statistician of the 18th century, described each person as an ideal observer, a definition which is now named after him - ideal Bayesian observer. If we put those who never change their opinion on one end of the spectrum and those who do so constantly on the other - ideal Bayesian observer will rest in the middle.

Why am I writing all this? To talk about a player who greatly divides opinion among the Arsenal faithful. He sometimes even swings the pendulum of his die-hard fans and his most pronounced haters the other way. Ever since I registered on Twitter (and it has been the case long before I did) he has been the cause of online fights aplenty. He even outdid Ozil. His name is Olivier Giroud.

But the Frenchman really shouldn’t be the cause of such controversy. While with Ozil it just took time to understand his subtle brilliance (might that be because Ozil is doing much of his work in grey zones?), Giroud’s contribution is there for everyone to see. Let’s start at the beginning.

We signed Olivier Giroud from Montpellier in the summer of 2012 for a meagre sum of 12 million. Let that sink in. Olivier Giroud cost us 12 million. It’s a good sum for a defender, we’d have high expectations for a defender with such a price tag, but it’s small change for a striker. For a good striker. In today’s world, a world inflated by the likes of City, Madrid and Barcelona, it’s hard to get good value for your money.

Make no mistake: Olivier Giroud is a very good striker. In fact, he’s much better than given credit for. In his three seasons, the Frenchman has scored more goals than Robin van Persie, than includes the adaptation season. Do you remember how much United paid for the Dutch Skunk? 25 million.

Right now Olivier Giroud is among the best forwards in the BPL. He is behind Aguero (who is simply world class) and Costa (cost twice as much), but everyone else? Kane probably had a better season overall, though it has to be noted Kane didn’t suffer a 3-month-long injury, thus he played considerably more. Anyway, Kane still has to prove he’s not a one-season wonder. Giroud already did that. He played three full seasons, steadily improving over their course.

This year his improvement has been phenomenal. Goals against big teams? Check. Goals from outside the box? Check. Better technique on the ball? Check.

Yet people scream "replacement". Even Thierry Henry jumped on the bandwagon and went on record saying we won't win the League with Giroud. Instead of asking himself why Arsenal didn't challenge this season, he just repeated what everyone else was saying. Cause if Henry had asked that question, he'd have seen we lost the league in the period from September to November. Incidentally, Giroud was out at the time.

Moreover, I don’t like to deal with abstract situations. You want a replacement? Fine, name one. But remember it should be:

1. A considerable upgrade
2. Available on the market

Let’s forget for a minute there are some players we simply cannot compete for even if they are available. Like Bale, for example. I don’t for a second concede we’ll be able to realistically fight for his signature even if he suddenly becomes available. Firstly because Gareth is likely to want a hefty salary and we all know Wenger won’t break his salary structure (he’s right not to); secondly because Bale cost Real 100 million. While he certainly will go for less, should the Galacticos decide to sell him, it won’t be MUCH less. It won’t be 40 million or so. Spending more at a time when other areas of our team need strengthening is, quite frankly, stupid.

Back to wanting an upgrade, however: do you see such players? Edinson Cavani, maybe? Scored 15 goals from open play in 35 games. Giroud has 14 in 27. Moreover, I didn’t like one bit what I saw from Cavani during the World Cup last year. I realise an international tournament isn’t the best way to measure someone’s true ability, however Cavani doesn’t look an upgrade to me, let alone a major one.

Or Gonzalo Higuain? Big game bottler, 15 goals from open play in 37 games? Does he look better than Giroud? Let’s ignore the fact he plays in Italy, which can lead to him becoming even less productive in England.

How about Karim Benzema, the fans’ favourite? How about the fact he’s scored only one more goal from open play, having played two more games than Giroud? Admittedly, he’s more adept at creating chances for teammates (has 10 assists to Giroud’s 3), but he a) plays in a less competitive environment b) has Cristiano Ronaldo c) disappears in big games. Yes, he still looks an upgrade, just not the one worth spending 40 million on.

I personally wanted to suggest two players: Alvaro Morata, who impressed me over the course of the semi-finals and Alexandre Lacazette. When I saw Morata’s stats I just ran away - his counterpart, Tevez, looks a much better alternative in comparison. In fact, his numbers are so good I’d seriously consider forking out some cash for Carlos and bringing him back to the BPL, if he was younger. At 31, Tevez is not the long-term solution we need.

That leaves us with Lacazette. Here we have a completely different set of skills to our own Frenchman and much better key stats, like goals, assists and chances created. Lacazette is just another type of forward: he plays facing the goal, he’s a dribbler and so on and so forth. You can read more about him (and his potential suitability) here. There’s only thing that threw me off balance: out of his 27 goals (in 33 games), Lacazette scored 8 from penalties. That leaves 19 from open play, which is more or less on par with Giroud in terms of games-per-goal. Nonetheless, I still think bringing in Lacazette would make us a better team: unlike the alternatives I’ve touched on above, Alexandre’s style of play is markedly different to Giroud’s AND he’s still young. He also won’t cost us 40 million, at least I don’t think he will.

Conclusions

On our hands we have one of the best, if not the best, back-to-the-goal striker in the whole of Europe. Even a much-lauded Benzema wouldn’t present a major upgrade, not to me at least.

Does that mean Giroud is ideal and we should just sit back and relax? No. Firstly, because Giroud is a bit one-dimensional: that means he’s almost as bad facing the goal as he’s good with his back to it. He certainly improved this season: two goals (against Liverpool and United, respectively) from outside the box and a 20% conversion rate hint he’s decent when facing the goal. I feel we can get even more from him should we put more crosses in.

However, we need an alternative to Giroud. We need someone who can play facing the goal and be successful at it. Right now all it takes is isolating Giroud and marking him tightly to render him ineffective. We’ve seen glimpses at how unstoppable we can be with a plan B: when Walcott led the line. Maybe Theo himself can become our plan B, maybe Sanchez can. If, for some reason or another, they won’t, then I’d certainly consider bringing in Lacazette.

But that doesn’t mean Giroud shouldn’t receive our backing. As I hope I have demonstrated, he’s one of the best at what he does. He deserves credit, a lot more than the Frenchman is currently getting.

Until later

P.S. I think Arsene can also jump-start Jovetic’s career. I used to like the forward a lot before he joined City - I’m sure I’m not alone here. With the right guidance, he can deliver on his early promise. He also shouldn’t cost us much

Extreme isolation?

It’s fair to say I was isolated from Arsenal’s fanbase until very recently. I started supporting the Gunners back in 2005, with a habit of regularly watching their games not kicking in at least till 2008. That gave me food for thought, though my blogging days were still far away. Instead, my family became the long-suffering victims of my unrelenting talk about Arsenal. They took it on the chin and even managed to demonstrate a kind of vague interest.

I’m grateful for it, I could even say I’m indebted to my family for demonstrating this interest: had they opted not to, I may well have abandoned watching football altogether. After a while it simply becomes unbearable stewing on your own thoughts with no outlet. Though I have to add I knew I was not alone: around 2008 I picked up the habit of reading Andrew Mangan’s daily blog. Thus I knew there was at least one person who shared my passion for Arsenal, who suffered as much as I did. Simply put, who cared. Who still does.

Why the isolation, I hear you ask? Why didn’t I do something to break the circle? Go to pubs, find an Arsenal community in Moscow, create an account on Twitter at the very least? That’s the part where I think I have to put my isolation into some context.

First of all, I was 14 in 2008. A teenager. I was still a pupil, going to pubs was out of question, because I was a) not independent enough to wander around a city as big as Moscow on my own b) not of age. Pubs go hand-in-hand with beer and all kinds of stuff like smoking and swearing. Stuff which seems pretty normal to me now, but it surely didn’t when I was 14.

The same goes for communities. What’s the main target of such a community? Gather together and go watch a game. Where do they do it? That’s right, ladies and gentlemen, in pubs.

Furthermore, I have to say that I was unaware of all those things back when I was 14. The thought of meeting, and going out with, a group of completely unknown to me individuals simply haven’t crossed my mind. Even if it had, I’m sure I would have opted against it. That would have been more of an unconscious decision back then, now I am better equipped to explain it.

You see, I’m an introvert. I need to spend some time alone to recharge my batteries. Social occasions sap my energy substantially. That doesn’t prevent me from enjoying certain types of collective activities, but I neither can, nor I’m willing to, frequently go out. When I was 14, school and all the entailing homework drained me. The mere thought of going out after all that would have been terrifying. Not only that: I would have been useless at such occasions. I would have showed up drained already, with no emotions left to enjoy a game of football. I suspect it was also the reason why I didn’t watch football matches at home. Though it might have been the case of games not being aired on TV (we have our own league, why should anyone broadcast the BPL?) and me not being advanced enough to watch games online.

As for the social networks, well… Our VK wasn’t (and still isn’t) a great place for interacting with fans such as myself, Facebook is no such place either (after all, VK’s concept is almost entirely ripped off from Facebook) and the only other (decent) alternative was Twitter. Which was in its inception back in 2008 and which I, until quite recently, abhorred, considering it a mess of mentions and hashtags. Twitter was also never popular in Russia, though it beats me why.

A lot of things changed when I finally went to university. I finally found the time and the energy to do something else, than just study, despite my first year being pretty strained. After my summer exam session I started writing posts to while away the time. Luckily, I didn’t track the views stats, or I would have given up pretty soon!

As it is, I continued writing throughout my second year. I finally found an outlet for my thoughts and kept writing more for myself, than for anyone else. I didn’t even share my posts on social networks, mostly because I was a) unaware of such a concept b) considered Facebook a mess (still do) and didn’t pay much attention to Twitter for the reasons I listed above. Google+ is a pretty poor platform for your posts and VK was out of the equation as my posts were in English. You will be hard-pressed to find a lot of Russians interested in hearing the thoughts of a fellow Russian in English!

As you can see, not a lot has changed when I took up blogging in terms of interaction. I was still pretty isolated. I only knew what I thought and the opinions of several Arsenal fans I found at uni. Then I discovered Twitter. Less than a year ago.

What prompted that discovery was my rather selfish (though, I think you’ll agree with me, understandable) desire to expand my platform and promote my blog. In June last year I suddenly realised that my blog, while nice, wasn’t going anywhere. The simple desire to do it for myself was left behind. I felt an urge, an urge pretty normal for any blogger I suspect, to be heard. To attract people. To have readers that would comment on your thoughts and give theirs.

I approached the matter thoroughly. I found a rather recent book written by Michael Hayatt (can recommend it to anyone who is thinking of creating and promoting his or her platform) on how to build your platform. It’s not very long and most of it I either already knew or felt was the right thing to do anyway. I didn’t need guidance most of the time.

But he did say at least one very important thing: Twitter. That it’s a much more helpful tool than Facebook, for instance. He also encouraged anyone to not give up on Twitter if at first you don’t like it. Persevere. Find people. Interact.

By following his advice I discovered much more than I initially hoped for: a sudden realisation that I’m far, far from being alone hit me. Finally getting heard became a nice bonus, not a sole target. I would have stayed anyway, because I felt a part of something more, part of a family.

I know I’m getting sentimental here, but that’s how it is. Picking up my phone and scrolling through my timeline at half-time makes me understand there are tens of thousands of people who feel the same way as I do. Or they feel different. They echo your thoughts, or they express their own. Opinions vary greatly and every (reasonable) fan has his or her own rationale. However, there’s one thing that unites us all: we all follow the Arsenal. Knowing and, indeed, having proof before your eyes, that you are a part of something more, is great.

Cheers

Arsenal 4-0 Aston Villa: 12th time the charm

Triumph. I was looking for one word which can best describe what happened yesterday and I found it: triumph.

Not a win. You can get 30+ wins a season and still be left empty-handed. Not a success. Success is temporary. One day you are successful, the other you are not. Success isn’t all-encompassing. You can be a successful manager and a bad professor in management.

But triumph is something more. It’s permanent. No one can diminish it, no one can take it away from you. No one can say: “You are triumphant, but…”. If he tried, not only would he break all grammar rules of the English language, he would also defy all logic and common sense.

Yesterday was exactly that: a triumph. The triumph of Arsenal players. The triumph of our way. The triumph of Arsene Wenger. The triumph of Arsenal Football Club.

We delivered. On a big stage. Over the course of 90 minutes. We showed up with a serious attitude. We took nothing for granted. We (or, rather, Arsene) fielded the best squad possible. They may have been only one sentimental choice in our starting XI: Wojciech Szczesny. However, having seen his performance, I wouldn’t say that. More on our Polish goalkeeper anon.

The other 10 players? Arguably our strongest: Bellerin, Mert, Kos, Monreal, Coquelin, Cazorla, Ozil, Ramsey, Sanchez and Walcott. You could make a case Giroud is our preferred striker, but again Arsene was spot-on for omitting the Frenchman: Ollie was out of form, Walcott’s confidence levels were sky-high following his hat-trick. Seems a bit churlish singling anyone out after what was the best team performance I’ve seen this season, so I won’t. Consider it the FA Cup Final special.

Wojciech Szczesny: As any Arsenal fan, I was nervous when I saw the Pole start the game. He was hardly convincing in any of his performances this calendar year, you see. How wrong I was.

Woj had little to do (nothing at all in the 2nd half), but boy did he do it well. He claimed every cross during the first 45 minutes and one was a special treat: Chezza punched the ball clear, towering over Benteke. I’m not sure Ospina could have mustered such a commanding aerial performance, so hats off to both Arsene and Szczesny. The Pole may yet have a future with us.

Hector Bellerin: If he would be so kind as to let Grealish out of his pocket. Thanks. In short, the Spaniard owned the right flank, overlapping with Ramsey nicely, while also being dead-serious about his defensive duties. The late shove on Grealish was particularly satisfying.

Per Mertesacker: bossed Benteke. Won the air completely, once even in the opposition’s box (oink, Given). The expression of unrestrained joy on the German’s face as he delivered the killer blow in the 62nd minute shows you how he cares for the Club. Can rival Wenger in this regard.

Laurent Koscielny: Bossielny. Mopped up everything there was to mop, won two headers in Villa’s box (was denied by a brilliant save from Given for the first) and looked really disgruntled to find a shirt over his head when his mate scored a goal. But my favourite moment came deep into the 2nd half, when Kos first won a header, then shielded the ball from Benteke and then just pushed the Belgian to the ground. No foul.

Nacho Monreal: a brilliant run and cross for the first and another solid defensive display. Who said the Spaniard isn’t good going forward?

Francis Coquelin: I can dig up the usual tackles and interceptions stats and I’m sure they will be impressive, but it’s the other side of Coq’s game that surprised me: his dribbling and passing ability.

I noticed before how Francis can power past opponents with a sudden burst of speed (almost Wilshere-like), however yesterday the Frenchman took his dribbling to almost Cazorla’s level, wiggling out of several tight spots with the ball. As for his passing, you remember that diagonal pass for Theo? Of course you do.

My point is that, if he keeps improving his passing and dribbling, hell, we’ll surely only need back-up. We may not need even that.

Santi Cazorla: most touches a player ever made in the FA Cup final (100) and 95% pass accuracy. An assist for Per Mertesacker, superb positional play. Sometimes played even deeper than Coq (geddit? Deeper than Coq. Alright, I’ll stop now). A simply phenomenal display from Santi.

Mesut Ozil: He can find space in Japanese underground. He can create space with a change of direction or a drop of the shoulder. If someone continues measuring his impact based on his goals and assists tally, they probably also think Xavi is shite. Such people are better left ignored.

Aaron Ramsey: had the best two moments in the opening stages. Hit the side netting after a brilliant run from Bellerin and blasted over when one-on-one. However, he got into those positions and he also helped Bellerin out a great deal. Kudos to the Welshman.

Alexis Sanchez: baby, Alexis Sanchez oooh. He saved the best for last. An assist (a headed assist!) and a superb goal at a crucial time. Goal of the season, hands down. That makes it 25 goals and 13 assists in 52 games. Barcelona won the lottery.

Theodore James Franklin Delano Walcott: he scuppered an early chance and by minute 35 I was beginning to think Arsene made a mistake by starting Theo over Giroud. Then Walcott thumped an opener with his chocolate leg and I went into overdrive. My neighbour from an upper floor came investigating where all the screaming originated from. I want Theo to stay. Badly.

Jack Wilshere: a couple of nice dribbles and some exceptional champagne scenes. Though these came later.

Olivier Giroud: dyed his hair, though was pretty inconspicuous up until the last 5 seconds of the game. Then he showed up in the right place at the right time and completed Villa’s humiliation with a deft stroke of his left foot.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain: the manager wasn’t going to sub him on, so Alex subbed him on himself. Played for 4 minutes overall (injury time included) and bagged an assist. Nice outing.

The aftermath

Jubilation. From the fact we’ve broken the record for most FA Cups. From the fact Arsene became the manager with most cups in the post-war era (he’s tied with Ramsay on 6 each on overall). From the fact we’ve won two trophies in two years.

It was a complete and utter...triumph. First and foremost, of Arsene’s philosophy over all the two-bit critics like Owen and Carragher, over all the haters and all the doubters, over world football. It’s something that will stay with him, and us, forever.

Cheers

FA Cup final preview: forewarned is forearmed

So, it all comes down to this. The FA Cup final. Our second in a row. An opportunity for Arsenal to become the most successful team in FA Cup history by winning it for the 12th time and for Arsene to become the most successful manager in the post-war era by bringing the cup home for the 6th time. A chance for me to witness the Gunners lift only the 3rd trophy in my memory.

But before all that can happen we have a final to win. Granted, we aren’t tasked with beating City or Chelsea in it, though there should be no room for complacency. Just think back to last year’s final. A newly-relegated team took a 2-0 lead inside the first 8 minutes and nearly bagged a 3rd goal in the 15th.

Luckily, most of the players that played then will play now. They’ll know what’s at stake. They’ll know any lapse of concentration can prove costly. Add to it the hunger of those who wasn’t there last time and we have a pretty good mix.

Only Welbeck is missing from it. The manager confirmed everyone else trained and can be involved if he so decides. I say “if he so decides” because we have 23 senior players fit. Some will miss out, simply because only 18 can be selected.

My guess is that Debuchy, Chambers, Diaby, Arteta and Rosicky won’t make the cut. Debuchy, Diaby and Arteta can hardly complain, as none of them are match fit; Chambers has lost his race for right-back spot, while also coming across as less convincing than Gabriel at centre-back. Rosicky, however, will feel hard done by if Wenger really omits the Czech. I hope, in my heart of hearts, that Arsene won’t do it. Maybe Le Boss can throw caution to the winds this one time and drop Flamini instead?

As for the starting line-up, I think Arsene only has two dilemmas: Ospina/Szczesny and Giroud/Walcott.

Ospina or Szczesny?

I’d go with Ospina, simply because he is the safer option. He is unlikely to get a rush of blood, unlikely to allow the occasion to get to him and, what is more, he’ll be willing to make amends for his final league game.

However, my gut feeling is such that Wenger will play Szczesny. Arsene didn’t say who will start in goal during the presser, he said even goalkeepers themselves didn’t know that yet, but something tells me it will be Szczesny. The boss will give Wojciech the opportunity to play in the final, an opportunity the Pole didn’t have last season and then we’ll say goodbye to Szczesny. I’m pretty sure Wojciech will be sold this summer regardless. It looks like Wenger’s patience ran out on that cold rainy night of January 1st.

Giroud or Walcott?

My pick is Theo. He had a cracker of a game against West Brom, he showed he can be that centre-forward we all crave for and, finally, Theo is a confidence player. His morale will be on a high following the hat-trick and as such he can destroy Aston Villa. On top of that, Sherwood’s preferred pair of central defenders (Okore and Vlaar) are far from being pacy. Theo can ruthlessly expose that drawback.

And once again I’m pretty sure Wenger will start not who I would: Giroud. What can be said in defense of this decision?:

1. Ollie is our established centre-forward. Though Giroud, like Theo, is a confidence player (though, UNLIKE Theo, his confidence should be pretty low), the Frenchman is also a proven forward. Theo isn’t. FA Cup final is not the place for experiments
2. Giroud will deal with the aforementioned Vlaar and Okore better. In a purely physical sense. Theo can be bullied because of his height/weight, Giroud won’t. He is a machine himself
3. Finally, Ollie is an asset on set pieces, both ours and Villa’s. This could prove vital when marking Benteke

Ramsey or Wilshere?

I know I said Wenger only has two selection headaches, however, I’d still like to think that Jack has done enough last weekend to claim a stake at starting on the right. I’m sure Wenger won’t start Theo there, Walcott and Bellerin can be too suspect defensively, while starting Oxlade is a risk. Alex has only made one substitute cameo since his return from injury. Though it has to be noted that, back in January, Ozil also made only one (against Stoke), before starting every other league and cup game. Mesut spent three months out with injury prior to that, so there is an outside chance the Ox will start, if my logic is anything to go by. But I wouldn’t bet on Oxlade’s involvement from the off.

I feel Jack is a better winger than Ramsey. The Englishman tends to hug the byline more, which is an advantage if Giroud also starts. However, in every other regard Ramsey is better (at the moment of speaking). He is a more disciplined defender, for starters. A better physical presence. The Welshman is also very obviously Arsene’s favourite. So, while I’d personally go with Wilsh, I’m pretty sure Wenger will opt for Rambo.

Predicted line-up: Szczesny, Bellerin, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal, Coquelin, Cazorla, Ozil, Ramsey, Sanchez, Giroud.

Predicted bench: Ospina, Gabriel, Gibbs, Flamini, Wilshere, Oxlade, Walcott.

The verdict

We most certainly have what it takes to win tomorrow. We have an almost fully-fit squad (Welbeck being the only absentee), the vast majority of our players is in good form and we have options in every position.

We possess the needed mentality. Having played in one cup final, the lads know what to expect. They know what they are capable of. They know they have beaten Villa already, despite it being in a league game (two, actually). They have identified the main weakness (i.e. slow starts to the game). They are forewarned.

All that is left is to put their knowledge, desire, hunger and ability in one place, focus at the task at hand and be ready when the whistle blows.

So come you Gunners. Bring that trophy home