Tuesday 2 September 2014

Season preview = transfer window review: Welbeck becomes our latest addition

First things first: with less than two hours to go before the transfer window's closure, Arsenal has signed Danny Welbeck. The first one to inform the fans of this signing was Alan Smith, former Gooner himself. He was apparently sitting through some kind of interview when he got a notification. Alan took to Twitter immediately to relay the news: "Welbeck to Arsenal. 16 million."

I have to say, that's a very good addition. The Englishman is only 23, he's a versatile striker who can play both with his back to the goal and facing it. He can also play on the flank, though he seems less effective there.

The general reaction from United fans (and their opinion is more informed, than ours) is that we have signed a very good striker. Danny was deemed surplus to requirements at United after the Red Devils signed Falcao. We were also told to have been in the mix for the Colombian, but I doubt it, especially after I've seen his wage demands: 346k per week! His one-year-loan has cost United 20 million and there's a compulsory buy-out clause at the end of it. Something around 65 million. Although this 20 million loan price tag includes (at least partly) Falcao's ridiculous wage demands, I don't think it's a reasonable price to pay. Yes, he's very good, yes, he fits our system, but he's also 28. Good luck to him at United, but Falcao to Arsenal? No thanks.

With all that in mind, I think it's time for a season preview. I know we've already played five games, but the picture wasn't complete until today. Now it is and we can get down to what Arsenal fans can expect from this season:

Goalkeepers

Fabianski and Viviano left us as soon as their contracts expired and it was obvious we needed at least one quality keeper. Whether it would be just an experienced shot-stopper like Schwarzer or someone to genuinely challenge Szczesny was not very important. Just because everyone knew Wojciech would start the season as our number one.

However, it's fair to say we've got more than we could have expected, when David Ospina, one of the goalkeepers who shined at the World Cup, signed for us. For a meagre sum of 3.5 million. A bit later Damien Martinez was promoted to the first squad and it became obvious to further arrivals in that area will happen. Not that we needed any.

The conclusion: we have two quality keepers on our hands and a young player who, with time, may well become good enough to be our number one. Szczesny will start most games for now, barring an injury to the Pole, but I'm sure Ospina will play in the cups and will get his shot at the first team sooner, rather than later.

Defenders

Our most troublesome area. The departed Sagna was replaced quickly and efficiently by his compatriot Debuchy and then we added Chambers on top. We bought the Englishman as back-up to Debuchy and so have let Jenks go on loan, as he seemingly had no chance to play regularly. This is one of our not-so-good decisions during this summer.

Jenks was quickly followed out of the door by our captain Thomas Vermaelen, but, unlike Jenko, Thomas left us permanently, signing a contract with Barcelona. Arsene promised to buy a CB, specifically emphasizing that Chambers was bought as a right-back, but no CB arrived.

We started the season with a pair of central defenders Koscielny-Chambers, cause Mertesacker had a prolonged holiday. At one point during the Community Shield game, we had Kos substituted for Monreal, as the former was not completely fit due to his continued involvement with France's national squad. All our hopes were piled on the deadline day of the transfer window to sign a CB, but none came. Worse still, Miquel completed his permanent switch to Norwich  and that means we have only six senior defenders right now. Seven, if we promote Bellerin (which we should have done regardless), but two of these will only be 19, meaning Mert and Kos are the only senior centre-halves at our disposal. Not pretty, we are skating on very thin ice here. Of course both Chambers and Monreal can deputise at the centre, even Flamini can play there, but it's not their best positions.

The conclusion: we are very short in this particular area and I fear that might come back to haunt us during the campaign. I cannot, for the world of me, understand why we haven't signed Nastasic, who was definitely available. Or Papastatopolous. Or Manolas. We are now basically asking Koscielny and Mertesacker to play in four competitions, which can amount to 50-60 games in total. Thank God Per has quit international football, but Arsene better have some contingency plan still.

Midfielders

We are not short in this area, that's for sure. Though the fabled DM never arrived, I always thought it's unlikely for two reasons:
  1. Chambers can play there. Even more, Arsene himself said that's where the Englishman will play in the future. Not this season, however, as Calum is badly needed elsewhere.
  2. Arteta was made captain, which basically makes him undroppable. He's an important cog in our machine, one of AW's most trusted players and I don't think the boss made Mikel our skipper to then unceremoniously drop him to give way to a shiny new buy.

In all other areas, we have an abundance of talented players. Wilshere, Ramsey, Rosicky, Cazorla, Ozil. No buys here makes complete sense, although I do wonder whether we have made a mistake by not re-signing Cesc Fabregas. Of course we know Arsene wants to build a team around Ozil, but seeing Cesc rock at Chelsea as basically a DM breaks my heart. If nothing else, we may have deployed our former player alongside Arteta or Ramsey at the base of the triquetra (assuming we stick to 4-2-3-1). Still, the Spaniard would have cost around 25 million and that could have cornered us in other areas in financial respect. And these other areas needed investments badly.

The conclusion: bar, possibly, a DM we are as well-stocked as it gets. Once again we face the risk of being overrun in midfield in big games, but I hope Arsene will figure a way around it. Change the formation, maybe play Chambers there. Anyway, we're likely to see an overhaul in defensive midfield next season, as Arteta, Flamini, Diaby and Coquelin (don't laugh) enter the last year of their respective contracts.

Strikers

Exceeding expectations. We've set the right tone to our summer by signing Sanchez early on, the went on to retain Campbell's services and rounded the summer off by signing Danny Welbeck after Giroud sustained a serious ankle injury. Whether that last buy was dictated by the domino effect (Danny became available after United signed Falcao), the fans (singing "sign some f*cking players" at the Leicester game) or it was a pre-planned event by Wenger and Co we'll never know for certain. However, as things stand, we are well off up front even with Giroud out until New Year.

Should the flanks be a concern? They should, if Arsene continues to deploy Ozil there, but from a purely tactical point of view. Number-wise we have a lot of players. Walcott, Oxlade, Cazorla, Podolski, Campbell. Rosicky can play there, if needed be. There are lingering doubts over Poldi's and Campbell's contribution, but I think both need to be given time. Then we'll judge them in terms of what both can bring to the team.

The conclusion: without Welbeck we would have looked frail, having only unconvincing Sanogo as a target-man. With Danny, we have options available for whatever plan Arsene chooses to utilise. I think Tim Stillman was right, when he pointed out in his column, that, for now, we'll play with a target man and as soon as Sanchez adapts to our style and we adapt to his, the Chilean will become our main forward. Welbeck and Giroud will become "Plan B", in case "Plan A" doesn't work. Sounds good.

Overall

Personally, Arsene has surprised me. Though I stated before the window opened that we need 4-6 signings to build on our success and compete till the end, I never actually thought we'd sign more than three players. Have to give the gaffer credit, where it's due.

For now, it's hard to say whether we can mount a serious title challenge, as we haven't truly clicked yet, but then I guess no one did. We'll know more after 10-15 games.

As for the other tournaments, I'd say we can go the distance in all of them. Definitely in the national cups, as we've won one of these even without some nice additions. Champions League presents, of course, a much more serious challenge, especially since we've landed in one of the hardest groups. But we have experience qualifying for the knock-out stages for, like, 13 consecutive seasons and when we get there, the game is on. Teams rarely make it to the last sixteen without a good reason.

That's it for today, probably will be back it two days, as the Interlull kicks in and news will be on the thin.

Until later, have a good week

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