Chelsea preview: picking at old wounds

We play Chelsea on Sunday and the Blues remain a very tricky opponent for us. We have improved against City and United in the last year or so, but hardly against Chelsea, being held to a goalless draw at the Emirates in April and losing away at Stamford Bridge (thanks to an atrocious performance from Mike Dean). However we did beat the Blues in the Community Shield.

Head-to-head

Our last home league win over Chelsea happened in 2010. Before that in 2007. And the one before? In 2004. So basically we beat Chelsea at home every three years (2013 exempting). Hey, that means our next win is due in 2016!

Jokes aside and that’s a piss poor record. Manchester United is probably the only team in the league we have such a poor recent record with. It’s miles better against City and Liverpool.

We suffered a lot of heavy home losses in the last 10-12 years against Chelsea too (though, interestingly, none of them were inflicted by Mourinho. In fact, I don’t think Mourinho’s Chelsea has beaten Arsene’s Arsenal either at Highbury or at the Emirates).

However, we have to take into account the banter years, which the last 10-12 undoubtedly were. Also, Hiddink, unlike Mourinho, is surely to come to the Emirates with a positive mentality. Beating a team which wants to play football is much easier than banging your head against the parked bus.

We go into this game on a pretty decent run too. Since the beginning of December Arsenal won 5 league games, lost only one and drawn two (the last two, incidentally). While we are on the subject, these are two good points. Liverpool are the only “big” team to leave Britannia with 3 points - Chelsea, United and City all lost their games there, while Leicester barely escaped with a draw. Also, while it was infuriating to only get a point at Anfield from the position we put ourselves into, two factors come into play: Liverpool actually outplayed us on the day and, again, it’s fiendishly hard to get three points there. United did it (how the hell did they do it?!), but Leicester lost, while both City and Chelsea are yet to play there. Given both the Blues and the Citizens lost to Liverpool at home…

Anyway, back to Chelsea and their recent form is an improvement on what Mourinho achieved in his last four months with the club. That’s not saying much (anything is an improvement on what Chelsea demonstrated from August to December), however, the Blues are yet to lose a game under Hiddink, winning 2 and drawing the other 4. Chelsea have also started scoring again, netting 13 times in these 6 matches, although their defense remains leaky and shipped 8 goals in the same time frame.

Team news update

It looks like both Ozil and Sanchez will make the squad:

“Compared to last week we have no big problems from the squad that was available to face Stoke. The good news is that Ozil will certainly be available. For Alexis the next few days will be decisive but I think this time he will make it to be available for selection.”

The manager talked at length about Alexis, about how he wants to minimize the risk of a set-back:

“I am cautious with him because we cannot afford a setback with him. A setback would mean a very long period out so we don’t want to take this gamble. The signs he has shown in training this week are positive.

The doubt is that he has been out for a long time and the risk of a setback if you try to go too early. To be clear on all the tests is one thing, after he is clear on training is another things, and after the intensity of a big game you can never repeat in a training session. You can make sure after a certain amount of time that the risk is minimal.”

Once again, I’m against risking Alexis for one game. Our next league game is on February 2nd, plenty of time for Alexis to get fully ready if he isn’t yet. Though I have to say the whole affair is getting tiresome. If Alexis makes the squad on Sunday, it means he will have spent 8 weeks out, instead of the initial 2-3. Furthermore, I have a strange feeling we are going to need Alexis to win this one, so maybe we should stop being overly cautious and give the man some minutes already. The Chilean’s been training for some time now and looked perfectly alright even last week.

In other news, we’ll soon have Rosicky, Welbeck and Coquelin (!) back:

“Coquelin is back in full training today (Thursday) and he is ahead of schedule. He has still a few steps to go through. Welbeck will be in full training next week so that is positive news. It is possible Rosicky will play in the under-21 game [on Friday].”

That’s some very good news right here. Rosicky may even make the squad on Sunday, while there’s a chance all three will be in the squad for our game vs Bournemouth, maybe even for the cup game against Burnley. A very timely boost, given our February schedule. Fingers crossed we’ll see all these guys back in action very soon.

The squad

I think the participation of the following players from the first minutes is not in question: Cech, Bellerin, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal, Ramsey, Ozil, Giroud.

Yes, part of me would like to see Gabriel, but given how his last game against Chelsea went, I’d rather have Mertesacker pairing Koscielny. Also think it’s sensible to stop  omitting Mert from the probable squad. He is our captain and a starter by default. Unlikely Wenger will pluck Gabriel out of the cold suddenly. For now, at least.

Ramsey and Ozil will occupy 2 of the three available midfield slots, but I do wonder who is going to occupy the holding position. No, I don’t mean Coquelin, it’s obviously too early for him, but is it time to give Elneny a try? As much as I like Flamini for his professionalism (the man pocketed Silva and Bojan without breaking a sweat), the Frenchman hasn’t really clicked with Ramsey. While Ozil's return and (hopefully) Alexis starting should contribute to making our midfield look less disjointed, the Flamini-Ramsey duo still stick out like a sore thumb.

How our front three shapes up is another interesting question. Obviously Giroud should start, but who play either side of him? I’d say neither Theo nor Oxlade merit a starting spot given their recent form and output. Campbell seems to provide the most even contribution, balancing the side in a way Ramsey did when playing on the right. If Alexis is fit, then I’d start him. However, given Arsene’s caution regarding the Chilean, I’m not sure the Frenchman would want to put him straight back into the starting XI.

Predicted line-up: Cech - Bellerin - Mertesacker - Koscielny - Monreal - Flamini - Ramsey - Campbell - Ozil - Walcott - Giroud

The verdict

The main obstacle we’ll have to face will be our mental block. As I’ve said our last home win against the Blues happened in 2010 (although we did manage an away win in 2011) and our scoreless streak against Chelsea is 5 matches long (league only).

Should we overcome this psychological hurdle, then I’d fancy our chances. Because, let’s face it, like Manchester United, this Chelsea side is not much to look at. Their defense is still leaky, their spirit seems very fragile and their league position is not accidental.

For all I know, we should try and get off to a flying start, like against United. Pin them back, score a couple, then let them chase ghosts. I’m convinced we have the quality to make it happen.

Now we just need to get on the field and do it. Come on you Gunners.

Unfortunately I won’t be able to watch the game live as I’m going on holiday for two weeks. I hope to be back in time to cover the Bournemouth game. If not, then I’ll see you again pre-Leicester.

Until later

Stoke preview: Gunners have to prove they have moved forward

We travel to Mordor on Sunday and, having dropped points on Wednesday, now need a win. While City are hosting Palace and can thus drop points, I highly doubt Leicester will do likewise against Aston Villa.

Leicester continue to amaze everyone. Way back, before we took on City I think, I predicted their goals will dry up and when this happened, Leicester would start dropping points big time because their leaky defense would go nowhere. However, despite scoring only once in their last 4 league games, Leicester picked up 5 points. Considering they played Liverpool, City and Tottenham in that time frame that’s an amazing achievement. Even Arsene openly admitted Leicester will fight for the title this season:

“To be completely honest with you I thought they might not last, [but] I have changed my opinion today because their remarkable consistency makes them one of the contenders. When the bubble bursts, most of the time it’s before Christmas or during the Christmas period. They didn’t. So I believe you have to count Leicester.”

Leicester still have a lot of tough away games - City, United, Chelsea and us, obviously, but then are we much better off ourselves? City, United, Tottenham and Everton are all away fixtures we’ll have to play at some point.

And Stoke. Stoke is our most burning problem. Especially since we aren’t particularly adept at beating the Potters away - no wins in 5 tries is a testament to that. We also happened to lose the last two in a row. Both managers are aware of this record.

Arsene:

"We have had difficulties at Stoke. They have a good record against us in recent years, and I must say as well they have overall a good record against Man United, City, the big teams.”

Mark Hughes:

"They know it is a difficult game for them, too, because we have enjoyed good results on home turf.”

But again, we would have more room for manoeuvre had we beaten Pool. No one said it’s easy to beat the Scousers away, but we simply can’t afford to drop points in two consecutive games, especially with the Chelsea game looming large. However bad Chelsea have been this season (and it looks like they have improved under Hiddink) playing a game vs them is never a walk in the park.

Team news update

The new boy Mohamed Elneny was registered in time and will be available. Now it’s up for Arsene to make a decision:

“Elneny is available for selection, I haven’t decided yet [whether I will play him]. I have to see how everyone has recovered. Elneny is a possibility to be in the squad for Sunday.”

Tomas Rosicky, however, isn’t quite ready yet:

“Tomas needs first to have a game somewhere. We hope for maybe an under-21 game or at least a bit more training with the first team.”

Alexis Sanchez, meanwhile, is a 50-50. Or should I say 60-40?

“Alexis I would say has a 60:40 chance to be available and be back in the squad. He has two decisive days - Friday and Saturday. He is fit, he has worked very hard and the decision we have to take is whether to take a gamble or not on his injury.”

Now, once again I’d like to reiterate that we’d better not rush Alexis for just one game. If he’s not fully fit, if there’s a risk he’ll aggravate the existing problem - rest him for one more week. However, I trust Arsene to do the right thing - that means I won’t fret over Alexis if he makes the squad. I’ll take it as a signal that the Chilean is fully fit.

Finally, Wenger provided us with an update on Danny Welbeck, who looks on course to return in the (dreaded) 2-3 weeks. I’m a bit confused here, as The Times reported earlier all of Wilshere, Welbeck and Coquelin returned to training and could feature in several weeks. However, as Arsene only mentioned Danny, I’ll assume the other two will be back later.

Squad

I’m going to presume Ospina (who wasn’t mentioned in the presser, weirdly) will return and Elneny will be included too. What the hell, if there’s a 60% chance Alexis makes it, I’ll throw him in too for good measure. Doubt the Chilean will start if deemed fit, however.

As for Stoke, they will be without Sherdan Shaquiri for this one, but, unfortunately, Marco Arnautovic should make it. Stoke this season have been notorious in robbing big clubs at home, beating all of Chelsea, United and City - the latter two comfortably - but their overall home form indicates they are far from unbeatable - the Potters have actually lost more home (4) than away (3) games. They are likely to step it up against us, however, so lapses in concentration from our side will be punished.

Regarding the line-up Arsene has 3 serious decisions to make - Gabriel or Mertesacker, Flamini or Elneny/Chambers and Walcott or whoever can actually play on the left. Just not Ox. Guess that means only two decisions, unless Sanchez is fit enough to start. We simply have to one else. Sigh.

If it were up to me, I’d definitely play Chambers alongside Ramsey. That’s a partnership which worked quite well in the few games they’ve had together. Elneny is a bit of an unknown quantity, I’m not sure throwing him at the deep end is the way to go. However I think Arsene may just stick with Flamini. In that case he’ll have to either instruct Ramsey to sit more, or order Flamini to play closer to halfway, not his own box.

The second decision, well, again I’d do the thing Arsene most likely won’t: play Gabriel and not Mertesacker. Think the Brazilian is just better suited to handling both the pace of Bojan and the physique of Arnautovic.

Predicted line-up (sincerely hope I’m wrong on several counts): Cech - Bellerin - Mertesacker - Koscielny - Monreal - Flamini - Ramsey - Ozil - Walcott - Campbell - Giroud

The verdict

“Last season we had a very bad start and I think we have more experience now and we are more stable defensively. We have a good opportunity to show that.

Stoke have improved their creative potential and we will want a really strong defensive display from our side because players like Arnautovic, Afellay and Bojan are all very creative players.

They have a strong record against us at home and they will have to maintain it but for us it is a good challenge to prove that we have made a step forward and can change that record.”

I really hope we rise up to that challenge. We are generally very good at bouncing back from disappointing results - even our three-game winless league streak in November was broken up with a thorough bashing of Dinamo Zagreb.

So let’s show up at Britannia and do the job.

Come on you Gunners.

Back with a review of the game.

Liverpool 3-3 Arsenal: Gunners fight back to earn a point, but midfield remains the problem

When the final whistle blew on Monday, I experienced a mixed bag of emotions: disappointed we couldn’t hold on, angry at being completely overplayed in midfield, glad we escaped the game without injuries. However my overriding emotion was that of relief.

I was emotionally drained by full-time. Truth be told, I was emotionally drained after 30 minutes, but you get the idea. My nervous system is now officially a wreck and I feel like I’ve aged a couple of years after that game.

I imagine this game was thoroughly enjoyable for the casual observer, while BT, Sky or whoever aired the game in England probably experienced an orgasimic sense of joy, close to the one Klopp experienced when he found out his team can score goals. Joy of a big TV company realising what a great advert this game can make.

However as an Arsenal fan, I mostly derived pleasure from individual performances rather than our collective display. Let’s start with these performances and the overall bits I liked from the game.

The character

No, Brendan, not this kind of character. Go away.

Once in a while you get these crazy end-to-end games that are exceptionally fun to watch (unless you aren’t emotionally invested in the success of one of the teams). Think it stems from the performance of the players on the day, plus, possibly, from the managers getting their tactics wrong.

However, we pulled off a second come-back inside 4 days and nearly won this game too. In fact, we’ve come from behind twice and it speaks a lot about our desire and “never say die” attitude.

We were under the kosh for the first 20-30 minutes, it was clear we weren’t coping with Liverpool’s pressure and the goals (however lucky for Liverpool they might have been) were still the direct result of this pressure paying dividends. But the players didn’t give up, didn’t throw in the towel. They responded almost immediately every time we went behind. It will be hard for them to take a draw because of that, however fair it seemed in the overall context.

Olivier Giroud

Simply put, Giroud was outstanding on Wednesday. Yes, he also produced the miss of the season, but two goals and the overall display offset that. A million times.

His passing numbers were low, but then: a) his passing numbers are always low b) Arsenal’s passing accuracy as a team on the day was a meagre 71% - the lowest we had in a league game this season.

The best bit was his aerial prowess and the ability to lay the ball off for his teammates after plucking it out of the air. He only won 3 duels in the air out of 7, but one of these was crucial in the build-up to the first goal. Ollie, most literally, risked life and limb going for that ball and required lengthy treatment after clashing heads with Sakho - but he got the job done.

As for Giroud’s goals, well, the first was his usual showcasing of his trademark diagonal run to the near post with a neat finish to follow, but the second was a thing of beauty. Giroud took one touch to bring a deflected pass under control and then turned and smashed the ball powerfully into the corner, leaving Toure on the floor.

I felt for the Frenchman in the end as much as for anyone else: Giroud showed grit to return after injury, he scored the equaliser and the near-winner, while also chipping in with a healthy defensive contribution, recovering the ball 6 times (twice in our half) and completing 4 tackles out of 7 attempted (though only one in our half).

Giroud was Man of the Match, hands down, however his impressive performance (recognised by even the Telegraph), raises a more important issue, namely: he can’t make way for Theo at centre-forward once Alexis returns. His contribution this season has been stellar and he deserves to keep his place in the starting XI.

Joel Campbell

The same can be said about Joel Campbell. The Costa-Rican had another brilliant outing, in stark contrast to Oxlade and Theo. He provided another assist, was pivotal in Giroud scoring the 3rd goal of the game and his industrious display speaks of a player whose talent is blossoming as a result of high confidence levels.

As I’ve already said, he is a player who brings balance to the side, We are going to need such players for the run-in. Alexis is explosive, but also erratic, Theo rarely makes an even contribution for the duration of the game (although this is partly related to him playing on the left, I suspect), while to Ramsey I’ll get in a bit.

So like Ollie up top, Campbell should keep his place based on what he showed this season.

Ramsey and Flamini

It’s fair to say this partnership hasn’t really clicked. I’ll get back to how I think the problem can be addressed anon, for now I’ll just talk why this partnership cost us the game. In my opinion, naturally. Feel free to disagree in the comment section below.

My first impression was that Flamini was awful, however, it turned out he wasn’t or, at least, the reasons for his under-par performance were less obvious.

In short, Flamini had an impeccable defensive performance, his passing aside. Here are his numbers:

1. 9 ball recoveries (7 in our half, one inside the box)
2. 3/3 tackles (2 inside the box)
3. 2 interceptions (near halfway)
4. 7/7 clearances
5. 3/3 aerial duels (2 of these near the centre circle)
6. 3 blocked shots (2 inside our box)
7. 1 turnover, no unsuccessful touches
8. No mistakes leading to shots/goals

So I dug deeper and came to the following conclusion: Flamini’s downfall was a) his positioning (his heat map shows he mostly took up positions near our box - hilariously, even Kos played higher than Flamini) b) being let down by Ramsey.

And so that brings me to the second part of this two-fold problem: Aaron Ramsey. On the previous point I made - his average position was actually fine, where it should be, it’s just that Flamini played much deeper, creating a big gap in doing so.

The problem is, Ramsey was too erratic, turning the ball over 5 (!) times and playing almost like a forward. I don’t mean his position here - I mean his style of play. If I’m allowed to quote 7amkickoff:

“The problem is that Ramsey plays like a forward and not like a box-to-box midfielder. He doesn’t pass as well as Cazorla and he doesn’t dribble as well. He doesn’t create for teammates and instead needs teammates to create for him. He also turns the ball over like a forward, shoots like a forward, and while he does tackle a lot he can’t make up for the loss of Coquelin in that regard because he doesn’t win significantly more tackles than Cazorla did.”

Here we are. Yes, Ramsey was positionally fine from first glance (Tim puts that into question in the “By the Numbers” section I linked you to above. Though I think he was talking more about the overall problem, not yesterday). he chipped in with tackles, blocks and stuff, he scored and assisted, yet his other shortcomings were exposed.

Something has to give in our midfield. Yesterday’s draw was as much down to Liverpool’s pressing as it was to our midfield balance. We were overrun and outplayed, while our inability to keep hold of the ball after going in front meant we would have been incredibly lucky to stay in front. We weren’t lucky.

Unfortunately, though we did finally announce Elneny’s signing (the Egyptian may even be available for selection vs Stoke). I doubt he’ll get thrown at the deep and or asked to do what Cazorla did by playing alongside Flamini. That means Ramsey will continue to start games centrally until one of Wilshere/Cazorla return. Which won’t happen for another month at least.

This means we can only address the other part of the problem - Flamini. And I think that’s exactly what we need to do. We need to put someone more positionally disciplined than Ramsey (MUCH more), who will also be able to distribute the ball from deep (making up for Santi’s absence). Basically, we need a younger Mikel Arteta, because the current one clearly isn’t ready to play every three days.

Whether this man is Elneny (I hope) or Chambers doesn’t really matter. What matters is getting our balance in midfield right and that’s not going to happen with Flamini and Ramsey starting games together.

The aftermath

This draw, however disappointing it is, isn’t the end of the world. City also dropped points (at home to Everton), while Spurs lost (to Leicester, admittedly). It means we are level with Ranieri’s men on points, but maintain a 3-point gap on City and a 7-point one on Spurs.

Our next game takes place in just 2 days and our draw at Anfield means we now have to win at Britannia Stadium. That’s why I sincerely hope we’ll have registered Elneny and got back Alexis and Rosicky by then. However, it’s how Arsene approaches his midfield problem that may just decide the outcome.

Back with a preview

Liverpool preview: the fun starts

Hi everyone.

I suspect it will be a short one today, despite the scale of the fixture - mainly because as I’m writing this the arrows on the clock are inching towards 10 p.m. on a Monday. It wouldn’t be such an issue had I not been forced to put in only 5 hours of sleep and then withstand a gruelling exam. But I did both these things, so here we are.

Tomorrow (Tuesday) Arsenal takes on Liverpool at Anfield and it’s fair to say we are in with a good chance of winning the game. The main reason why this Liverpool side looks vulnerable right now is their growing injury list - the reliable premierinjuries.com tell us 13 (!) of Klopp’s men are currently injured. An unlucky number indeed.

This list includes Philippe Coutinho, Daniel Sturridge (ahem), Martin Skrtel, Dejan Lovren, Jordan Henderson and Mamadou Sakho - although it has to be said the latter two are facing late fitness tests and could both be available.

Team news update

What do we have to show for our injury problems? Well, we can forget about Jack, Danny and Santi for now, that’s for sure. The first to be back should be Welbz, whose return may happen on February 6th. Out of mind, for now.

Francis Coquelin may be pushing for a late January return, however no update on him was given pre-Liverpool, with Arsene saying both Francis and Santi should be back on schedule. That means a late February comeback for our Policeman. I don’t like it, moreover, I think Coq may be back sooner, seeing as his injury wasn’t for half a season and he’s already started running, but let’s stick with the official version and see if there might be a surprise in store for us come end of January.

That means our immediate future (the next 2-3 weeks, say) can only bring us gifts in Alexis- and Thomas-esque shape. The former:

“We think he will be short for Wednesday, he has a chance to be available for Sunday [against Stoke]. He is always keen to play. If you listen to Alexis he can always play - even when he is injured. We try to be cautious. With a muscular injury you never exactly how big the risk but he is very close. If you look at him training he is very close.”

The latter:

“He will be back in full training this week, it is fantastic because he has been out for very long and it is good to know that a player of that calibre is back in our squad.”

I sincerely hope Alexis returns in time for Stoke to maybe make a substitute appearance and thus whip into shape for Chelsea. Of course at this point I’d rather Arsene didn’t risk the Chilean and push him to make the squad vs Stoke. Better safe than sorry and all that. We are going to need him for our tough run-in.

However Thomas was captured a million times today - during a training session. I’m assuming this means the experienced Czech will be named in the squad vs Pool and it’s good to know. He brings a lot to our side, one of his (almost) unique qualities being his ability to burst through the lines in a Wilshere-esque manner. Or should I say Jack bursts through the lines in a Rosicky-esque manner?

Whatever way you look at it, having our Little Mozart back is a huge bonus and I hope his swan song will remind us of the quality of the player we were lucky to have at our disposal for 10 years.

Head-to-head

Liverpool have been pretty whack, even after Klopp took over. There have been noticeable changes in the way they play, while clearly this squad isn’t the final version of what the manager would like to have, but for now the point stands - Liverpool have been pretty whack.

This whackiness (is this even a word?) is especially telling at home - their record under Klopp is W2-D2-L1 with both wins being narrow 1-0. Pool have scored 6 and conceded 5 in those fixtures. Their overall record under Klopp is W5-D3-L4 with the goal difference being an astonishing 0 - 14 scored and 14 conceded. Lastly, Pool only managed 21 league goals this season - just over 1 per game. Klopp’s men are 14th in the goalscoring table.

All of this hints at either the lack of chances created for the forward men or, indeed, the quality of these forward men. Interestingly enough, it looks to be the latter - seeing as Liverpool are 2nd in the league in chances created - 13.2 per game. Even Arsenal are 3rd in this regard (12.9 per game, though I suspect Cazorla’s absence might be taking its toll). Only City have a better chance creation frequency - 13.6 per game.

Fortunately, we have very few problems with which Klopp is burdened right now. Indeed, had it not been for our atrocious November, our away form could have been better than our home one - and that’s saying something, seeing as we racked up 23 points in 10 home games - almost 2.5 per game.

Approach

"Arsenal and Arsene have their own style; it's possession football, so it's clear that if we want to play the same way we will be without a chance because they've been doing it for longer.

Arsenal are not only a good possession team, that's the problem, they have good counter-attacks too and that's what you have to be aware of.” - Klopp

Does it sound to you like Klopp will instruct his men to cede possession and play on the counter? Because to me it sounds like he will. Of course it’s not the end of the world - we are very good on the ball and if we take our chances, Arsenal can be out of sight before Pool try and sucker punch them on the counter - think back to that 4-1 drubbing at the Emirates.

However, I’d say Arsene should consider the opposite approach. Do I have reason to believe he will? I hope I do:

“You compensate for the absence of quality players with different styles. Sometimes with more physical commitment, more solidarity, because you’re conscious that you have less individual potential to change the games.”

This is what Arsene said pre-Sunderland, when asked to give his take on Arsenal being top without Alexis Sanchez. To me “less individual potential” sounds like “sometimes we can’t play the football we like to play because we don’t have the key players for it”. Seeing as our preferred approach is possession-based football, the less comfortable way for us would be playing without the ball, like we did against City to great effect in 2015 (twice). Or like we did against Liverpool at Anfield last year and nearly succeeded. Or maybe I’m just theorising without concrete facts. Or maybe I just like the quote. You decide.

However, I’d advocate a more direct approach from us tomorrow night. It yielded results against tough opposition away from home pretty consistently, plus we know Liverpool will have trouble dealing with our attacks if we bypass their press.

How to do it without Santi Cazorla, our best distributor? Long balls. It may sound funny, simplistic even, but that’s exactly what teams that have recently beaten Liverpool exercised, West Ham being the prime example. The Hammers have only attempted 272 passes (completing only 182), but of these 43 were long balls (15 were successful) - 16%. I have no idea whether 16% is an anomaly, a high percentage, but Watford, for example played 20% of their passes long in the 3-0 win over Liverpool.

If we look at the overall context, Arsenal plays the least long balls per game in the league - under 50, which is less than 10% of their passes per game (average), while Watford plays 80 long balls per game - 20% of their total.

So I guess we can have some joy if we try the long ball strategy.

Squad

Just a couple of words on team selection, I’ve made the article long enough as it is (so much for “it’ll be a short one”).

I guess we will be treated to returns of Mertesacker, Monreal, Flamini, Ramsey and Ozil to the starting XI. Objectively speaking, something like this is our strongest squad at the moment:

Predicted line-up: Cech - Bellerin - Mertesacker - Koscielny - Monreal - Flamini - Ramsey - Ozil - Walcott - Campbell - Giroud

It’d be heartwarming to see Rosicky on the bench (hope he makes it), while both Iwobi and Jeff showed they can chip in with their respective contributions, so I’m pretty calm about our options from the bench.

I wouldn’t advocate dropping Per for Gabriel as I sometimes do before big games - Mert is excellent in the air and we’ll need his skills against Benteke, the most likely forward on the day. Also, while I’d like to see Chambers get a game in midfield with Ox for Theo maybe on the wing, I do realise both changes are potentially risky. So it is what it is, here’s for a quick return of Sanchez and Coq (and the signing of Elneny). Also, hope we’ll see Rosicky get some minutes.

The verdict

It’ll be an interesting game, that’s for sure, Given Liverpool’s inconsistent form, even more so at home, I favour us to get the three points - we seem a better-drilled unit right now.

The main problem will be dealing with Klopp’s gegenpressing, though it looks like Arsene has it covered:

“[We need to] play our game at a good pace. We are used to pressing. It is not just Liverpool who do that, everybody in the modern game [does it].

Pressing has been created in England basically because there is a history of teams who have done that very well so it is part of the modern game to make quick decisions, be very short with your first touch and play your game.”

Now we just need to pull it off.

Come on you Gunners.

Back with a review