Tuesday 11 March 2014

Bayer Munich preview: mind games

Hi.

Tonight we face Bayern in the return fixture and the odds are against us. Heavily.

But does that mean we don't have a chance to go through? Absolutely not. True, the current holders are strong, they ship in goals like no one's business, but they will have the weight of expectation in their shoulders. We won't. As soon as the draw pinched us against the German champions everyone was quick to voice their opinion that we are done for. And yes, we have lost our home game, giving these opinions further basis. And yet the first fifteen minutes of the clash at the Emirates were the best from Arsenal I've seen this year. Had Ozil converted the penalty, who knows how that game would have ended?

Back to Bayern's, dare I say, obligation to win and I'm pretty sure we can exploit this. With nothing to lose, Arsenal is a fearsome opponent to anyone. If we open the scoring, the Germans will most likely experience panic. Such as they have experienced a year ago when Koscielny's header made it 2-0 in the latter stages.

Both managers view ball retention as a key factor to success. Pep Guardiola says:

"If we have the ball, we will be in the next round. If Arsenal have the ball, they will be in the quarter-final."

He elaborates this thought by saying that we have top-notch players, for whom it's easy to create moments of danger and cause Bayern's defence problems as a result.

Arsene, meanwhile, identified Ozil as the man who can help us beat the Bavarian giants:

"I think he is over it [the penalty miss]. He has a good opportunity to show on Tuesday night how good he is".

On essence, both mangers want their players to keep the ball, because both know how hard it can be to park the bus and try to hit the opponent on the counter, especially against such quality opposition. Both sides have enough players to break down one others defenses, and both fear they do not have enough resources to fend off each other for long.

That's why I think Rosicky will start ahead of the Ox. As much as we need the Englishman's drive and energy, Tomas it's just a better playmaker. And the more playmakers we have on field, the merrier.

Flamteta axis worked well enough against Everton and that's due to Arteta playing closer to Giroud, than to his own goal. He did return to help Flamini out, but the Spaniard's role was different nonetheless. Basically, Flamini was tasked with most of the dirty work, while Arteta's part was to try and intercept passes higher up the pitch and to distribute the ball to his teammates. It worked rather brilliantly, so the duo will continue in midfield today.

It's the other area of the pitch I am most concerned about, namely: who will play at left-back. Both Monreal and Gibbs are out (the latter with a kick on his ankle), so Vermaelen sends the only viable choice.

Our skipper had a good game against the Toffees (bar that slip-up Barkley nearly took advantage of) and should be good to go. His physique also means it's unlikely Thomas will be bullied by that Dutch diver and Co, cause the captain just won't tolerate it.

The natural concern is, of course, that he's not a full-back in the true sense if the word. His weakest performances came, when Vermaelen was forced to play on the flank. Let's hope he cuts out the mistakes and delivers when we truly need him to. He may not be add good at crossing the ball as Gibbs or Nacho, but he's a great header and a tough guy. Which, in it's turn, means advantage in the box at corners. It'll be beautiful, should the Belgian net a goal.

All in all, the scene is set up nicely for a showdown. It'll be interesting to see, what strategy Bayern will adopt and how much their mental hurdle will affect the way they play, but if Arsenal demonstrates the same ruthlessness and desire going forward as we did on Saturday, we might just be able to sucker-punch Bayern on their turf. Come on you Gunners.

That's it for today. I'll return with a review on either Wednesday or Thursday.

Until then