Saturday 17 January 2015

City preview: pressure's on

Good evening.

It's City away tomorrow and I think it's the hardest game of those remaining: even Chelsea should be less challenging, as we face them at home. City, however, have only lost once at the Etihad (with nine wins in another eleven games) and, looking at how their squad is one of the most balanced in the league, you can't help but feel we will be the underdogs tomorrow.

And this role suits us perfectly fine: too often we failed to deliver under the weight of expectation. We've lost and drawn games in which we were the favourites, so playing second fiddle may not turn out to be as bad.

Team news update

Debuchy, Arteta and Wilshere can be scrapped out of the equation for now: Jack will probably be the first one to return, but his return won't happen before the end of February. Very unlucky, all of them could have come in handy, but it is what it is. I've long since gotten used to the thought we'll probably never have a fully-fit squad.

In other news, we'll take on City without Danny Welbeck:

"Danny Welbeck is not ready yet, he is still feeling some pain, so we will have to be patient. I think he has two more weeks before he’s back."

though Kieran Gibbs should be fine:

"He has a test today. He should come back into the squad."

Also, Ozil, Ramsey and Walcott are all fine and are now a week fitter:

"They were already available for last week and they are available for Sunday."

Which leaves us with a pretty big squad and quite a few selection headaches. Let's try figuring out who'll start.

The back five

I'm pretty sure Ospina will continue in goal. There's a reason he's replaced Szczesny, that reason hasn't gone away and, on top of that, Ospina didn't make any mistakes against Stoke. No reason to drop him.

At right-back we have two candidates to start: Bellerin and Chambers. The Spaniard has matured rapidly since his debut against Borussia early in the campaign and has also put in some very convincing performances against Newcastle and Stoke. However, I still feel Arsene will opt for Chambers, as he seems a more reliable choice.

Interestingly enough, this choice may depend on who plays at left-back: Monreal or Gibbs. As explained in this piece by Tim Stillman, Arsene likes to play with one conventional full-back, who sits back and basically acts as a third CB, while the other full-back bombs forward to help the attackers stretch the pitch. In the long run, we'll probably have Gibbs as the one going forward, so our right-back will have to be a more defensive-minded player. However, in the short-term, the simple truth is that Monreal is in better form right now. And, as Monreal prioritises his defensive responsibilities, the romping full-back position is up for grabs and Chambers doesn't fit the job description. But Bellerin does.

As Gibbs hasn't played for a while, I think Monreal will start tomorrow. Which, in it's turn, makes Bellerin the favourite to start at RB. It'll be interesting to see, how Arsene tackles this problem. At CB, meanwhile, we should see the usual Mertescielny axis of awesome.

The midfield

Will Arsene start Ozil? That's probably the main dilemma. I don't think he will, Ozil doesn't seem fully ready yet. Throwing him at the deep end won't do anyone any good, especially since Cazorla is on top form right now. So the Spaniard should get the nod.

At the base I think Coquelin and Ramsey will start. It's easier to start Ramsey than Ozil simply because the former didn't spend so long out of the game. As for Coquelin, he has been impressive recently, so it'll make little sense to drop him. Let's see how he fares against a big side.

But I also won't bat an eyelid should Arsene go for a safer Flamini-Coquelin base, especially if he opts to start Ozil ahead of them. This decision will surely drive Arsena's fan base crazy, however, you can't say it doesn't make sense if we decide to play second fiddle to City. I'd still pick Ramsey over Flamini any day of the week, though.

The attack

In Welbeck's absence, I'm pretty certain Giroud will lead the line once again. His physicality may be a problem for City, even more so if Kompany doesn't start. And, of course, no one said we are abandoning the target-man system with fast wings, so Giroud is a natural choice.

Alexis should once again play on the left, but there's another conundrum for Arsene to crack concerning the right wing. Walcott or the Ox? Theo has to start games at some point, however it's obvious he's not on top form right now and it may not be the best idea to risk playing him. It's not like we don't have options. So I'd start the Ox on the right, with Walcott making another appearance from the bench as the games goes on and City's defenders will fade away a bit. And then we can start Walcott all we like against Brighton, Leicester and Aston Villa. Not the hardest games on offer and they present a good chance for Theo to return to his peak.

The verdict

“It is important that we keep calm, play with control and be committed as well.

We have to find that right balance between going for every challenge but also not going overboard - we have to respect the rules.

We want to win. What we want is to put the maximum effort in to give ourselves the best possible chance of winning."

That's Arsene reflecting on the upcoming game. Personally, I think we really can win this game. Despite injures we have a very good squad, a squad full of quality players. We have a lot of in-form players, guys like Cazorla, Alexis and Koscielny. We have those who have something to prove (Monreal, Bellerin, Coquelin). And we are on a rather good run, having won four games out of the last five, shipping in four goals and keeping two clean sheets in the process. So there are positive signs based on which we can win the game. It won't be easy by any means, but it's doable.

So come on you Gunners.

And I'll be back with a review as soon as I can.

Until later

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