Tuesday 18 February 2014

Bayern Munich preview: underdogs?

Hello.

Tomorrow night the second bout of Champions League football takes place and we host Bayern in an entertaining home fixture.

Most are of the opinion that Arsenal are no match for the defending champions. On top of a a last year's treble, Bayern are, by far, the best team in Bundesliga, with nineteen wins and two draws. Leverkusen trail them by 16 points, Borussia by 17. Their only loss came during the group stages of the CL, when City has beaten the Germans at Allianz Arena.

And yet there's also an air of confidence around quite a lot of people, Arsenal fans being the most prominent fraction. And I don't think it's based on belief in this side only.

Point is, Wenger rarely makes the same mistake twice, unless he has no room for manuever. There were a lot of examples of how Arsene learned from his mistakes down the years and only United and Barcelona (at their prime) managed to get two wins over Arsenal in the same year.

Even if we take some of the most recent games, Arsenal always responds in a positive way. Milan? Check. Bayern last year? Check. Liverpool right now? Check.

Moreover, this side has mental toughness to it than any other side since the Invincibles. We've been doing what we do for a year now and I don't see us suddenly break down.

In terms of team news, the press conference hasn't taken place yet, but there is word Vermaelen may return and if he really does, that's wonderful news. I got to admit, it's been a bit nervy to only have two fit centre-halves for a last couple of weeks. We were an injury or a suspension away from calling Sagna into action as the emergency central defender, which also would have meant Jenkinson on the right flank. I like Carl, but I still think he's not ready to play on a regular basis.

Apart from Vermaelen, I don't think anyone will return and, unfortunately, we lose Arteta through suspension, so Flamini will most likely be paired up with Wilshere.

Szczesny, Sagna, Gibbs and Giroud should all start, but the manager has an interesting dilemma on the flanks to ponder. Does he try and overload the centre of the park and pick Cazorla and Rosicky, or will he want to stretch the play and start Podolski and the Ox? Besides, there's also the matter of form and exhaustion level to ponder.

I suspect Arsene will choose the latter option. Not only are Podolski and Oxlade genuine wingers and will provide Giroud with plenty of service as such, they may also seek to exploit Bayern defensive weakness. In a piece I've read earlier, it is stated that Rafinha will most likely play at right-back and, given the fact he's not a true full-back, Podolski can make it count.

On the other flank, there'll be no Ribery (another bonus), so we can risk playing the Ox there. Not that he doesn't return to help Sagna out, but Rosicky is still a better option defensively.

An interesting call for the manager, anyway. I'm sure he's informed of any potential weaknesses and his teams' strengths better, than anyone else. Having played Bayern just a year ago helps too.

Not much else going on, so I'll leave it here. Should anything of note pop up, I'll be back tomorrow. If not, check back on Thursday for a review.

Come on you reds