Friday 29 May 2015

FA Cup final preview: forewarned is forearmed

So, it all comes down to this. The FA Cup final. Our second in a row. An opportunity for Arsenal to become the most successful team in FA Cup history by winning it for the 12th time and for Arsene to become the most successful manager in the post-war era by bringing the cup home for the 6th time. A chance for me to witness the Gunners lift only the 3rd trophy in my memory.

But before all that can happen we have a final to win. Granted, we aren’t tasked with beating City or Chelsea in it, though there should be no room for complacency. Just think back to last year’s final. A newly-relegated team took a 2-0 lead inside the first 8 minutes and nearly bagged a 3rd goal in the 15th.

Luckily, most of the players that played then will play now. They’ll know what’s at stake. They’ll know any lapse of concentration can prove costly. Add to it the hunger of those who wasn’t there last time and we have a pretty good mix.

Only Welbeck is missing from it. The manager confirmed everyone else trained and can be involved if he so decides. I say “if he so decides” because we have 23 senior players fit. Some will miss out, simply because only 18 can be selected.

My guess is that Debuchy, Chambers, Diaby, Arteta and Rosicky won’t make the cut. Debuchy, Diaby and Arteta can hardly complain, as none of them are match fit; Chambers has lost his race for right-back spot, while also coming across as less convincing than Gabriel at centre-back. Rosicky, however, will feel hard done by if Wenger really omits the Czech. I hope, in my heart of hearts, that Arsene won’t do it. Maybe Le Boss can throw caution to the winds this one time and drop Flamini instead?

As for the starting line-up, I think Arsene only has two dilemmas: Ospina/Szczesny and Giroud/Walcott.

Ospina or Szczesny?

I’d go with Ospina, simply because he is the safer option. He is unlikely to get a rush of blood, unlikely to allow the occasion to get to him and, what is more, he’ll be willing to make amends for his final league game.

However, my gut feeling is such that Wenger will play Szczesny. Arsene didn’t say who will start in goal during the presser, he said even goalkeepers themselves didn’t know that yet, but something tells me it will be Szczesny. The boss will give Wojciech the opportunity to play in the final, an opportunity the Pole didn’t have last season and then we’ll say goodbye to Szczesny. I’m pretty sure Wojciech will be sold this summer regardless. It looks like Wenger’s patience ran out on that cold rainy night of January 1st.

Giroud or Walcott?

My pick is Theo. He had a cracker of a game against West Brom, he showed he can be that centre-forward we all crave for and, finally, Theo is a confidence player. His morale will be on a high following the hat-trick and as such he can destroy Aston Villa. On top of that, Sherwood’s preferred pair of central defenders (Okore and Vlaar) are far from being pacy. Theo can ruthlessly expose that drawback.

And once again I’m pretty sure Wenger will start not who I would: Giroud. What can be said in defense of this decision?:

  1. Ollie is our established centre-forward. Though Giroud, like Theo, is a confidence player (though, UNLIKE Theo, his confidence should be pretty low), the Frenchman is also a proven forward. Theo isn’t. FA Cup final is not the place for experiments
  2. Giroud will deal with the aforementioned Vlaar and Okore better. In a purely physical sense. Theo can be bullied because of his height/weight, Giroud won’t. He is a machine himself
  3. Finally, Ollie is an asset on set pieces, both ours and Villa’s. This could prove vital when marking Benteke

Ramsey or Wilshere?

I know I said Wenger only has two selection headaches, however, I’d still like to think that Jack has done enough last weekend to claim a stake at starting on the right. I’m sure Wenger won’t start Theo there, Walcott and Bellerin can be too suspect defensively, while starting Oxlade is a risk. Alex has only made one substitute cameo since his return from injury. Though it has to be noted that, back in January, Ozil also made only one (against Stoke), before starting every other league and cup game. Mesut spent three months out with injury prior to that, so there is an outside chance the Ox will start, if my logic is anything to go by. But I wouldn’t bet on Oxlade’s involvement from the off.

I feel Jack is a better winger than Ramsey. The Englishman tends to hug the byline more, which is an advantage if Giroud also starts. However, in every other regard Ramsey is better (at the moment of speaking). He is a more disciplined defender, for starters. A better physical presence. The Welshman is also very obviously Arsene’s favourite. So, while I’d personally go with Wilsh, I’m pretty sure Wenger will opt for Rambo.

Predicted line-up: Szczesny, Bellerin, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal, Coquelin, Cazorla, Ozil, Ramsey, Sanchez, Giroud.

Predicted bench: Ospina, Gabriel, Gibbs, Flamini, Wilshere, Oxlade, Walcott.


The verdict

We most certainly have what it takes to win tomorrow. We have an almost fully-fit squad (Welbeck being the only absentee), the vast majority of our players is in good form and we have options in every position.

We possess the needed mentality. Having played in one cup final, the lads know what to expect. They know what they are capable of. They know they have beaten Villa already, despite it being in a league game (two, actually). They have identified the main weakness (i.e. slow starts to the game). They are forewarned.

All that is left is to put their knowledge, desire, hunger and ability in one place, focus at the task at hand and be ready when the whistle blows.

So come you Gunners. Bring that trophy home