Tuesday 16 September 2014

Borussia preview: weed out the mistakes

It's Borussia Dortmund today and Arsene faces something of a selection headache. But, while his options up front are basically limitless, it's the defense that worries me. So a guessing game is in order.

The back five

Szczesny should once again get the green light to start between the sticks. He was instrumental in getting us a point on Saturday and it's a real pity the Pole still has no clean sheets in BPL to his name. Goes to show how hard it is to not concede.

In defense, we only have five senior players. Throw in Bellerin and we have six, but him and Chambers are just 19 years of age. This is really scary. With Debuchy out, most likely for two months, we have a right-back dilemma to solve.

Chambers looks the obvious choice, but playing him means having no cover for Per and Kos. On the other hand, it's too much to ask Bellerin to start week in, week out. He's good, better than Jenks, in my view, but is he up for the task? Can the young Spaniard hold out approximately for 15 games, games, in which we need to be getting points?

We can go for the safer option and play Chambers (who is a 50/50, mind you) and have Bellerin on the bench. Problem is, Monreal is carrying a knock and hasn't travelled with the squad, so risking Chambers in this particular game can prove dangerous. Whichever way you look at the situation, we are short in defense.

The other three defenders basically pick themselves: Gibbs, Koscielny and Mertesacker.

Midfield

Plethora of options here. I've seen someone on Twitter suggest we should try Ramsey in a holding position and, while this is a rather unconventional choice, it does make sense.

With Flamini below par and Arteta dropped (who would have thought? I certainly didn't), Ramsey is the best option. The threat he poses in the attacking third has dwindled down a bit (he and Wilshere just can't be efficient doing the same thing), but his restless energy and fighting spirit remain. I'm sure the Welshman will put in a good shift in the fabled DM position, as he's more disciplined than Wilshere, more combative than Flamini and is a better runner than Arteta.

However, I also wouldn't be surprised should Arteta start. He's the captain, after all, and I think his absence on Saturday was more down to not being fully fit rather than Wenger deciding there are better alternatives to the Spaniard. Arteta's omission can be down to both factors, of course.

In central midfield I'd go with a Wilshere-Ramsey or Wilshere-Cazorla duo, depending on who starts in DM. With Jack there should be no questions. He was our best performer, he's clearly found some form and to drop the Englishman now may just undo all the good.

Cazorla, meanwhile, also had a good run of games, so his absence against City came as a little shock. I'm all for starting Santi alongside Jack, they seem to have forged a good understanding and their playstyles are different, whereas Jack's and Aaron's are too similar.

Attack

Welbeck looks the most obvious CF option to me, though Alexis is always a possibility. He offers different qualities to these of the Englishman and the manager may just want to utilise the Chilean's pace and energy to cause trouble to Borussia. We'll see, what happens, but personally I tip Welbeck to start.

On the flanks, Ozil is set to play another game. I've seen endless criticism of both how the German performs there and how Arsene shouldn't use Mesut on the left. However, I've also seen an interesting assumption as to why Wenger persists on shifting Ozil out wide: fitness. The Frenchman wants Mesut to get used to the physicality of the Premier League. He's done the same with Wilshere last year and with Ramsey a little earlier, so I won't be surprised if he's doing it again.

See, for all his prodigious skills and vision, Ozil is not much of a fighter. His presence in the centre of the park is both positive and negative. Positive because the German is able to see the pitch better and spray his inch-perfect passes. Negative because he rarely tracks back to help defenders and, upon losing the ball, rarely offers resistance to get it back. In this sense, both Wilshere and Ramsey are better candidates. You've seen what they are capable of against City. So, while it is frustrating to watch Ozil struggle, I don't think he'll be played on the left/right permanently.

The other flank is either Alexis or Cazorla/Chamberlain, should Sanchez be deployed as a traditional number 9. Personally, I wouldn't fix what isn't broken and play the same attacking trio as on Saturday.

The verdict

When it comes to attacking, it's clear we can give anyone a run for their money. We have a lot of quality players, each of whom can trouble the opposition and, moreover, we've seen these players click against City. Should they once again find their rhythm, we should have little problem breaking through Borussia's defense.

It's at the back where we look vulnerable. Only Gibbs, Mertesacker, Koscielny and Bellerin are completely fit, while Chambers is a 50/50. Beyond that, we have no cover for this game. Flamini can play at the back, Coquelin can do likewise, but these are fixes, which may, or may not, work. And even if they do, these aren't permanent solutions. Fingers crossed our defense will do well and come through the same unscathed. We really cannot afford to lose another player in that department.

Actually, I have a positive feeling about this match. I feel like we can win it (we have last year, didn't we?), should we get the basics in defense right. Don't concede from set-pieces and from the first shot on target and we'll make it just fine.

Alright, that's it for today. Back with a review on Wednesday/Thursday.

Until then and c'mon you Gunners

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