Monaco preview: not mission impossible, but mission improbable

Three years ago Arsenal were pinned against Milan in the last 16. I remember this very vividly: we topped the group (for once) and this should have ensured we got an easier opponent. However, our luck was such that we didn't: we landed the worst draw possible. Thing is, Milan was in the same group as Barca and thus the Italians finished second. That's not to say they were pushovers, far from it: it was Milan in their prime. And we had to play them.

The first tie was horrible. We were rolled over at San Siro and even an in-form Van Persie and club legend Thierry Henry were unable to prevent the sound thrashing we were handed out. As some bloke scored a penalty to make it 4-0, I turned the game off, as I couldn't stand the humiliation any longer.

No one believed in us doing anything of note in the return leg. I was at the Maldives at the time the game was played. Naturally, I found a TV with a game on. And as the game kicked off the commentator put brilliantly what was to come in a nutshell: "It's not mission impossible for Arsenal, but mission improbable". We know what happened next: Arsenal almost qualified. Almost.

I'm not trying to get your hopes high, there's a reason why the last time someone overturned a two-goal home deficit happened in 1969. However, I am also not going to write Arsenal off completely. I've seen us beat Milan and Bayern and these games suggest we can turn our current tie around.

Team news update

We are still without Mathieu Debuchy, Mikel Arteta and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, while I also don't think Jack Wilshere will be involved. Arsene was quick to downplay the Englishman's availability mid-week and this suggests we won't see Jack until after the international break. Wenger may just be protecting Wilsh from being called up to England's national team and, if so, it's completely fine with me. No point risking Jack in a meaningless friendly, he will be much-needed during the final push in the league and the cup.

Rosicky's involvement is also shrouded in mystery. The Czech was unexpectedly omitted from the squad right before our game at Old Trafford and didn't even make the bench five days later against West Ham. The only explanation I've seen is that Tomas is down with flu and I hope it really is the case. He can make an impact both from the start and as a sub, so fingers crossed the Czech is included in tomorrow's squad.

However, good news is that Gabriel is back and I think the manager will be tempted to play the Brazilian from the off . We'll most likely adopt a high pressing line tomorrow and Mertesacker is not the best man in this particular case.

With that sorted out, time to put together a squad.

Defense

Only Koscielny seems a guaranteed starter to me. Mertesacker may, or may not, be replaced by Gabriel (I hope it's the former), Bellerin's involvement depends on who will play ahead of him on the right, while the Gibbs/Monreal dilemma hinges on who will be the right-back on the night. I think Wenger won't try starting two romping full-backs again, that's part of the reason we were punished at the Emirates, so Gibbs should play with Chambers and Monreal with Bellerin.

My hunch tells me we'll see Bellerin, Gabriel and Monreal get the nod. Bellerin because it looked like he was being rested on Saturday. Gabriel because of the high pressing line and his ability to sweep up should Bellerin get caught up high upfield. Monreal both to balance the defense and due to his form. That should be it concerning the defensive line.

Midfield

I think Arsene will be highly reluctant to introduce any changes. Coquelin, Ramsey and Ozil did a brilliant job on West Ham. However, another consideration may come into play: our right flank. I'm almost certain Walcott won't start there:

1. Playing Bellerin and Theo at the same time is risky and will invite Monaco to attack down our right
2. Walcott probably won't have space to exploit. If Monaco sits back, we'll be forced to pass it around. This isn't Theo's game

As such we may either play Ozil on the right or Welbeck. Games against United and West Ham showed us Wenger is determined to play Cazorla centrally and so Ozil will have to play wide if Santi is on the pitch.

I'd probably opt to have an unchanged midfield and throw in Cazorla at some point if needs must.

Attack

Sanchez and Giroud have to start. I think I don't need to explain why.

This leaves us with a choice on the right wing to make. Personally, I'd prefer Welbeck there. He has the pace and is a more keen tracker of runners than Ozil. But I still won't exclude Ozil shifting to the right. We'll most likely have the job on our hands stretching Monaco's defense and so having as many capable passers of the ball as possible is not such a bad idea.

The verdict

This tie should never have come to this. We should have had an advantage going into the second leg, instead our light attitude and profligacy made the task at hand almost impossible. Almost.

If there are positives in our current predicament, it's that Monaco are now favourites. The pressure is on them to finish the job, not on us to qualify and this situation plays into our hands. We all know Arsenal can play exceptional football when there's nothing to lose.

Let's try maximising the benefits from this situation and then see what happens.

Come on you Gunners.

Back with a review.

Until then

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