Manchester United preview: kick it off, kick it out

Evening everyone.

We take on Manchester United tomorrow in what will be a late kick-off and I've run out of imperatives of how important it is for us to win games.

This time around, however, I feel much calmer than I usually do before big games. That may be down to several reasons: the fact our last disappointment happened two weeks ago, the shakiness of United's defense or Emirates slowly becoming a fortress. Something Arsene acknowledged:

“But we are strong at home. We have learnt to be patient and to wait for our chances without losing our shape. [Yes] we've had many draws. But there's no block there. We feel strong at home and we have had a good record in the last 25 games"

Arsene also gave the customary injury update and this allows us to play the "Guess who?" game once again.

The back five

Copy. Paste. No, honestly, even with fit defenders and keepers you don't expect the back five to be reshuffled every game. And having everyone available is not the case here. However, Arsene shed some light on when Debuchy and Koscielny might return:

"Koscielny and Debuchy are doing well, they are out on the field [working] again. We have to see now. Usually field work is three weeks away from full group training. Then there is fitness. It looks straightforward for Debuchy. It's not inflammation, it's just repairing surgery. For Koscielny, it depends how well he responds to training. At the moment he looks good."

The funny bit comes when Arsene talks in such a way that gives you an idea Debuchy may return earlier than Koscielny. Imagine the scenes amongst Arsenal fans if this happens.

Without these two, I can, of course, suggest that it's better to play Chambers at CB and Bellerin at RB, but I somehow don't think Wenger will make that switch. He wants as stable a back-four as possible in the absence of the two Frenchmen, changing it now will mean destabilising it once more. Thank God Rvp and Rooney aren't very good at heading the ball, while Falcao is out of the picture.

The midfield

Ah, the joy of having almost everyone available. Well, almost. Apart from Ozil. Probably the player we need most. The irony. Moving on, however.

Now it really is a tough job to suggest the three midfielders. I'd personally start Arteta and Wilshere at the base of the midfield. The former is much better at defending and organising the midfield than both Flamini and Ramsey. The latter has

1. shown glimpses of promise in the holding role for England
2. the crucial ability to make a decisive impact in big games (see: City)

That also means dropping Ramsey and Flamini and it's the Welshman who'd be hard to omit. Maybe it's better to slot him alongside Arteta and move Wilshere further upfield? I'd say this will help us maintain possession better, something that's hard to achieve with Sanchez under the striker.

We also know how keen Arsene is to make a Wilshere-Ramsey partnership work, but it'll be a big gamble to start these two at the base. Ramsey this year is very different to Ramsey last year, while a handful of games for England will hardly make Jack a pro DM, so we need Arteta for this one.

Further up it's either Wilshere or Sanchez and it's a tough call. They are very different players in terms of what they bring to the side, so this is a riddle for Arsene to solve.

The attack

Walcott in, Walcott out, Walcott in, Walcott out, that's what it's all about. Arsene said he doesn't think Theo will be available, but the Englishman took part in a full training session today, so I wonder whether our manager might be playing mind games.

However, I won't get my hopes high. I'd go for the less optimistic scenario and assume Theo will only make the bench. In this case, Oxlade is likely to play on the right, with either Cazorla or Sanchez on the left.

Another question is who starts up front. Welbeck is a doubt (again, if Wenger is to be believed on this one), which leaves us with several options:

1. Giroud up front. Everyone loves the HFB, of course, but I don't think he's ready yet.
2. Sanchez up front. This will probably mean an Arteta-Ramsey-Wilshere trio in midfield. Not bad, but it remains to be seen how Sanchez will fare up front on his own. He is not exactly a target man.
3. Sanogo up front. God forbid. Don't even know why I put him here.
4. Podolski up front. The fact that he's below Sanogo for this role tells you all you need to know about the German's chances of starting in the forward position.
5. Campbell up front. Perhaps I should stop now.

So, realistically speaking, it's either Giroud or Sanchez and I'm leaning towards the latter. Firstly, the Frenchman isn't yet ready to play for 90 minutes, secondly, Sanchez will go through United's make-shift defense like a knife through butter. But Welbeck will probably start nonetheless. In his case the chances of Wenger playing mind games are stronger, than with Walcott.

The verdict

The manager has enough options and firepower in the forward position for us to win the game, but it's the defense (naturally) that worries me. That's why we need to protect our defenders as much as we can. That's why omitting Arteta, Oxlade or even Cazorla can be a huge risk. All these players track back to help the defenders. That's why Sanchez and Welbeck should play (apart from their contribution further upfield, of course). Steady our defense and we are in for three points. Fail, and the likes of Rooney and Di Maria can punish us.

C'mon you Gunners. Buckle the trend, beat United. Put in a performance.

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)

On Lukas Podolski

Hello.

Not much happening still, apart from some quotes from Lukas Podolski, so I decided it's high time to concentrate on his role in this Arsenal side.

I'll start with the quotes, though:

“I have to speak to Wenger because the situation at the moment is not good for me because I have to play, so we will see what happens.I am happy at Arsenal and happy in London but the only thing is I don’t play. I don’t get the chance to play. I play always 10 to 15 minutes. I cannot be happy with this.”

I've already touched on how Poldi's talents are utilised rather peripherally, but I didn't touch on why it is so. Yes, the competition across the front three is vicious, yet the German seems affected more than anyone else. Bar Campbell, maybe (whose position is slightly different), Podolski is the easiest player to omit from the squad and the hardest to include. He just doesn't fit the system, which not only Arsenal uses, by the way.

What system is this? The one with the lone forward. A lot of teams rely on this formation, but for it to work they need a physical presence up front. Like Benzema, Costa, Aguero. Like Giroud and Welbeck. Unfortunately (both for him and for us), Poldi doesn't belong to such type. He isn't strong enough to lead the line alone, an ability which requires playing with your back to the goal a lot.

However, Lukas also isn't your typical winger. He tends to drift inside in search for the ball and thus doesn't stretch the play enough. The German also shies away from tracking back and helping Gibbs out, which leads to the Englishman being exposed. This also limits Kieran's opportunities to bomb forward to give us another option in attack, as Poldi providing cover is not a sure thing.

Ideally, as Amy Lawrence writes in the Guardian (where I got the original idea from, by the way), Podolski is a type of striker who complements a 4-4-2 nicely. He needs someone to lay the ball off for him, to set him up the way we set up our wide forwards. And though Arsene is now more open to playing a 4-4-2, it's again hard to imagine a scenario in which Poldi starts the majority of games.

However, I like the fact the German doesn't throw a tantrum about not getting enough playing time:

“I don’t say that I want to leave or that I leave in winter. I just think about my situation and my situation is unhappy. It is like anyone who is not getting a chance at doing their job. I know that only 11 can play but when you always play 10 or 15 minutes and it happens every week then you cannot be happy. I am happy with the team and the coach and the club but I don’t play. That is the only thing.”

Sensible, no harsh words said, no one is blamed for the situation. Unlike some of our not-so-distant departures, Lukas remains neutral. Good to see.

We'll see what happens in January, but I genuinely don't see Poldi making his way into the starting eleven. He hasn't done so in over two years and doesn't seem likely to do so now.

It's a bit sad, really. Podolski is a top-class footballer. He has a lethal left foot, great sense of positioning and, the most important thing of all, he's a clinical finisher. Probably still the best at Arsenal, maybe in the whole league. These few chances the German gets he puts away.

When he arrived from Koln in 2012 I saw Podolski as a like-for-like replacement for RvP. He ticked the same boxes as the Dutchman, who's lead the attack alone for two seasons. I really thought we will see a lot of Poldi up top. Instead, Giroud became the first-choice forward, as we adopted (or, maybe, reverted back to) a 4-2-3-1. So it feels like an opportunity has been lost with Podolski.

That's it for today, back tomorrow or on Saturday with a preview.

Until then

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)

The one about everything

Good day to you.

I haven't written here for some time and quite a few things happened while I was out and about. Starting with:

Giroud's return

That's right, ladies and gentlemen, Olivier has resumed normal training sessions, as far back as Thursday. And that means the HFB should be available for selection against United. Taking into account Welbeck has gone away with England and still has a game to play (congratulations on his brace against Slovenia, by the way), we may see Giroud start on Saturday.

However, I'm pretty sure he won't. You just don't start a game of that calibre and intensity after three months out. A couple of weeks' training will have done Olivier a world of good, of course, but the Frenchman needs a bit of competitive football before he finds his form. I'm thinking Giroud coming on from the bench for a hat-trick hero Welbeck (What? One can dream, right?) is best we can hope for.

Whether he plays on the weekend or not is not that important really. What IS important, though, is that we've got our best (for the last two seasons) goalscorer back. Whatever you think of the Frenchman, he's capable of putting the ball into the back of the net, a quality that's been lacking from Welbeck's game recently. So it's good to see Giroud back.

The unhappy players

Podolski up first:

"I have to worry about what will happen in the winter and will look for talks with the club".

I'm not happy with my position at the moment and it would also be rubbish for that to continue. I am still having fun with football, but when you take away the competition (of regular matches) from me, which I find so awesome, then I am not happy. But if nothing happens in the winter, then I'll stay. It's not as though I am completely unsatisfied."

I don't know why [I don't play], for that you'll have to ask the coach in England. You can't even say I am in a crisis, because I don't have the possibility to show what I can do. I always give everything in training, but when you only get eight to ten minutes in a game, it's difficult. You're only just warming up."

With Poldi the situation is quite simple: he's a sub and, barring a spate of injuries in the forward positions, he'll remain a sub. Even when the competition on the flanks wasn't so fierce Podolski didn't make the grade, now with the acquisition of Sanchez and Walcott's return, I won't be hugely surprised to see the German dropped altogether for our game against United. So him leaving in January is quite possible.

Rosicky is next:

"I'm not sure what's going on. I understand that I am 34 years old and that it probably plays a role whether I like it or not. That's without a doubt. However, I am not in physical decline.

"When I played for the (Czech Republic) national team against Holland I ran 12km and according to the tests at Arsenal I'm in the top five in terms of speed."

"We are on good terms, so I do not really know what it is. It is purely a coach's decision. It's not my decline. My health is fine too. Of course I want to play, but there's not much I can do about it.

Here's the situation is surprising to me, truth be told. Yes, Rosicky is not a starter with everyone fit, but when Ozil sustained an injury I thought the Czech would be involved more. After all, him and Cazorla are our most natural playmakers and Santi isn't exactly in top form right now.

But Arsene decided to tackle the problem of Ozi's absence differently. He introduced Sanchez to the proceedings and, while we are very obviously reaping the benefits of this decision in terms of goal-scoring, Sanchez's erratic passing cannot be ignored altogether.

The happy players

Campbell (remember him?) is, surprisingly, calm about his situation:

“What they have been saying is not true, I’m very calm. I have not been furious. Obviously, yes, I would like to be playing, but that’s something that has to be earned day by day. I have to keep training and waiting for the opportunity, I know it’s a very competitive team.

“It’s one of the best teams in the world where there are many important players. I have to be patient, keep training and I know my chance will arrive and I’ll have to take advantage of it when it comes."

Here we have trust issues by the looks of it. Arsene, for some reason or another, just doesn't trust Campbell and this lead to the Costa-Rican's omission in favour of Sanogo. Just like Podolski, Campbell plays in a position where the competition is at its finest, but, at least when Podolski is trusted to make an impact with the clock ticking away, Campbell is thrown on when the situation is beyond saving.

I'm glad Campbell wants to stay and fight for his place, at a time when others would opt to seek pastures new, however, I'll be hard-pressed to name where Campbell might fit in. Perhaps with Poldi on his way out and Cazorla not getting any younger Joel may get his chance next season, but for now he'll have to make do with occasional substitute appearances.

Another happy player is Alexis Sanchez (surprise!):

“Now that I’m here, sometimes I stop to look my teammates in practice and I realize that I’m surrounded by a lot of quality. I have been impressed by the attitude and talent. I know that with this group we can win many titles in the coming years. I’m convinced.”

“I’ve been impressed,” he continued. “I love how they look and create spaces, individual and collective movements.

“I tell you seriously, I like what I see so much that I have repeated many times that if we have the winning mentality needed, and if we are positive and go out to win every game, I know we can win in any competition.”

Love this guy. Absolutely. What an attitude, what a mentality. Did you know he scored another goal while on international duty, against Venezuela? That makes him fifth top scorer for the national team, with 25 goals. Fifteen more, and he'll become the record holder.

The holding position

There are talks afloat about Arteta's contract extension, one which will see him stay at the Club till 2016. Personally, I have no issue with that. Yes, the Spaniard isn't young anymore, but he can create order from chaos. His presence has a calming effect on the team as a whole and, more importantly, Mikel is experienced enough to organise the midfield, like no one else can do in our squad. It was visible how we missed Arteta against Anderlecht and Swansea and so, if he stays, I'll take no issue with that. On the contrary, I'll be glad to see the Spaniard continue at the Club beyond his current contract.

However, as the transfer window draws closer, suggestions as to who we might buy emerge. I've stumbled upon a very good article, which makes perfect sense to me. Give it a go, I don't want to spoil the fun for you.

That's it for now. I'll get back here on Thursday if something new pops up.

Until then

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)

The importance of being positive

Over the last few days I've seen a lot of Arsenal fans overreact. It is understandable. The start to this season has been, well...underwhelming, to say the least. Bar a couple of games we haven't really been able to show anything approaching good form. We very obviously lack last year's defensive solidity and even a remarkably in-form Sanchez and all his goals haven't been able to make up for our defensive shortcomings. Our less-than-persuasive efforts have cost us a lot of points already and can cost more still if we don't find some rhyme or rhythm to our game. And we should do so quickly.

However, there are very few voices of reason among our fans. Most seem to think a simple solution to our problem exists, like sacking the manager or adding a few more bodies to our squad. I'm not sure THERE IS a serious problem to start with, but I'll get back to that in a bit.

Let's try and analyse the prevailing point of view first. For a quite obvious reason we cannot buy anyone right now: the transfer window is closed. However, would a couple of players solve the problem immediately? It's hard to know what can happen, of course. Sanchez and Cazorla have both bedded in instantly, but Ozil, for example, is still adapting. And remember how atrocious Koscielny and Mertesacker were in their respective first seasons? And now they are first-choice centre-backs, having formed a formidable partnership. So there's no guarantee that a couple of new faces will hit the ground running, however world-class they are. There's also the problem of trying to glue together a lot of new players. We already have Sanchez, Welbeck, Debuchy, Chambers and (to an extent) Ozil. Three of these four start when fit and they haven't played together an awful lot to begin with. And now think we add another midfielder and a centre-back to the mix. That means five new faces in one squad. Imagine how Mertesacker will feel playing with Debuchy and, say, Hummels either side of him. All three are, without doubt, pure quality (two of them are reigning champions, for God's sake), but don't you think it's too much for Mert to handle? If we add a DM we all want so badly on top, Mert will have to coordinate three new faces.

As for sacking Arsene, it can have an infinitely more detrimental effect on our squad. Just like the players, a new manager will need time to know how things are done. He'll also have to make do with the same group of players, at least till January. And serious squad overhaul is unlikely even then, because a) our transfer budget is not a bottomless pit b) very few quality players will be available mid-season. And fewer still will be an upgrade on the existing ones.

All this talk about a new manager is based on the assumption that there are available pros on the market. Not just pros, again, guys better than Wenger. Now, whatever you think of the man, he's among the very best managers in the world. Even the most brainless pundits won't deny that. And all managers worthy of their high status are settled, under contract from other big clubs and are just as unlikely to want to change places in mid-season. And do you want to see a less-proven manager at our helm? Martinez, Rodgers (ha), Clement?

There is one more thing to take into account before we buy anti-Wenger banners and go to the Emirates waving them: there's no guarantee that even a world-class manager will bring about instant success. Look at van Gaal and all the money he's wasted. Look at how Pellegrini is losing control of the situation. Look at how fabled Martinez, Rodgers and even Klopp underperform and ask yourself a simple question, hand on heart: do you really want to put the fate of our Club in the hands of a mercenary, however classy he is? Would you rather swap a guy who's totally devoted to this Club for an unknown and maybe even (God forbid) unproven quantity?

That's why I think we should look at the situation differently. In a very insightful article I've read over on Positively Arsenal the writer expresses an opinion (which, needless to say, I find not only possible, but also quite probable) that the current Arsenal is a transitional Arsenal. An Arsenal, which is in the process of changing mentality from viewing fourth as a trophy to challenging for major honours.

The writer likens this team to a golf player, for whom the process of getting from 16 to 12 strikes is easy, from 12 to 8 harder, from 8 to 4 is doable, getting it under 4 strikes is extremely hard. This last step requires a complete change of approach and, before the results get better, they get worse. Some slip back into the familiarity of their 4 shots and return to their initial approach. These will only challenge for honours, but will eventually fall short every time. Does this ring a bell?

From what it looks, we are pursuing another scenario. We want to really have a go at trophies, not just challenge and fall short again. And this, as I've just illustrated, requires a new strategy. A 4-1-4-1, Sanchez in the middle, Ozil on the left, this can all be a part of the plan. Arsene's plan.

There was a phrase I didn't pay much attention to at the time I heard it. Before the Cup final last year, Arsene was asked what his goals for the next three seasons were. The answer was predictable, yet, coming from Arsene it didn't sound like talk for the sake of talking. It sounded like a promise. What did he answer? "I want to win the Champions League and the League Title."

So I'm going to take sides with Geoff, PositivelyArsenal and TheArsenalHorse and I'll do this for two reasons. First: these guys, unlike moaners that have crawled out of their holes, have valid arguments to support their theories. Two: I'd rather be upbeat for the next three years and be dissappointed in the end than have it the other way around. Being optimistic by default just makes your life so much easier.

I'm also going  to take a last stand with Arsene Wenger. I believe that he really does have a plan, a project and that he, as a man of his word, can deliver on his promise. I'm going to give Arsene the time he deserves to put his plan into action. If, in two-and-a-half years we'll still be fighting for fourth without these two trophies to show for it, I'll admit I was wrong. I'll admit Arsene Wenger was wrong and that his time is up, that he should step aside and give the chance to someone else. If, however, he delivers on his promise and retires with the dignity he deserves a lot of people, like Piers Morgan, will look very stupid indeed.

Until 2017 I'll back Arsene to the hilt. And I think all our fans should do the same. It'll be much easier for Arsene to implement his plan with at least the support of those, for whom this Club means something more than just a Club. Those who really care for Arsenal.

I hope that when 2016-2017 season is over, we'll get to say "Pity, that there's only one Arsene Wenger".

Until later

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)

Swansea 2-1 Arsenal: lacking backbone

For the second time inside a week I don't know where to start and what to say. I suppose I should express my condolences to a number of people, starting with Arsenal fans. Those who stuck with the Club for the last ten years are the definition of a fan. Devotion through the good and the bad (mostly bad), backing the team home and away singing their hearts out. Those who, despite feeling angry, disappointed and let down, continue to support Arsenal.

I think the mere fact of being an Arsenal fan speaks volumes about your personality, about your traits and priorities, about your values. There was even a joke, which went like this: "If you find a woman, who supports Arsenal, marry her. She'll never leave you if the going is rough, she won't desert you even if you're not successful for a long time, but she'll worship every your achievement and milestone".

I also think that supporting Arsenal should long have become an official excuse for any strange behaviour or mood swings. "Why have your skipped the class?" "Arsenal lost" "Why didn't you hand in your written report?" "Arsenal lost" "Why did you murder the cat?" "Arsenal lost". Sounds as good an excuse as any. Maybe better than most.

I also want to express my deep sorrow to Alexis Sanchez, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Jack Wilshere and Danny Welbeck. The boys have worked their socks off, given everything and it wasn't enough to get the three points. Watching Alexis cry made me, too. I don't cry often. I prefer kicking furniture or shouting at people. Yesterday, seeing Alexis's let-down and sad face made me weep like a little girl. Jack and Alex, meanwhile, had it in them to go and thank the away fans for their support.

I also feel sorry for Arsene Wenger. Yes, you've read that right. On a purely human level, I feel for the man. You have to be dead inside not to. He's a human being, who is put under immense pressure right now. From the media, the brainless pundits like Savage, from the fans. I'm glad I haven't seen the post-game press-conference. From what I've heard, the boss looked completely lost. And he has kids and a wife to go to, he has to carry on. As you may remember, Arsene turned 65 not long ago.

He very obviously doesn't have the answers to our second capitulation in the space of five days. He laid some of the blame at the players' door and, while it's understandable, they are not solely at fault.

Is Chambers all that guilty for producing a bad display? The guy is 19 and played in every game, bar Hull. That makes it 17 games already, only three appearances from the bench.

That fact that such a young and talented boy is played out of position also doesn't help. Chambers is much more of a CB, than a RB, it seems, so I'm not at all inclined to skin Calum based on one bad performance, during which he didn't play in his preferred position.

The same goes for Monreal, apart from the "one bad performance" bit. The Spaniard is out of his depth, something he himself admitted to earlier in the season. He held his own stoically against Bony, but you can't realistically expect a 5'9 feet tall Nacho to do the same against a 6+ feet Gomis. I'm not blaming him for losing that headed duel. Rather, I'm much more interested in where Mertesacker has been.

I'm also very interested in our shape prior to their equaliser. The goal itself was magnificent, there's no denying that. No wall or goalkeeper could have saved that, so hats off to Sigurdsson for a marvellous strike. But could this strike have been avoided? I think it could have and I see two ways of how it could have been accomplished.

First: Ramsey and Flamini should have been switched on when the attack broke down. Both were caught very high up the pitch, left out of the equation early in the build-up and this lead to a dangerous attack. Second: Gibbs shouldn't have allowed Barrow to get that far. I don't have any issue with the foul itself, I'm just saying it should have been committed further up field to prevent a dangerous free-kick. A yellow is a yellow anywhere.

Some of the other manager's decisions also baffle me. Why not play Bellerin at right-back from the outset? He's a right-back, unlike Chambers, while Chambers is a centre-back, unlike Monreal. Bottom line is this: why Chambers wasn't subbed when it became clear Montero was getting the better of him? Or, at least, why did no one shield Calum, why nobody helped him out?

But don't let my criticism of the defenders fool you: it was a collective failure, not the back-four one. Flamini and Ramsey tried to help (the Welshman finally played much closer to the defense), however they fell short when it mattered most. Wilshere and Walcott came on, but did so five minutes late. At that point we were already down by a goal.

Sanogo was the final straw. The absurdity of that sub almost equals Coquelin for Giroud a couple of years back. Remember that game? We were drawing Aston Villa and Arsene decided to protect the point instead of going for all three. The irony is, I think we've lost that game.

Yet we also cannot pin all the blame on Wenger. It's a vicious circle. But the Frenchman ultimately doesn't run around or kick the ball himself. He cannot directly influence the proceedings by physically being on the pitch.

Did he really instruct Flamini to bomb forward when we conceded that unfortunate free-kick? Highly unlikely. Did he order six of his players to remain at the other end of the pitch when Montero and Gomis stormed upfield to grab the winner? I don't think so.

For the first time in my memory an Arsenal side performs worse than the sum of it parts might suggest. Much worse. We have a very good squad, yet we're unable to deliver.

And the problem isn't only the lack of proper personnel or the walking wounded. It isn't the experience, cause we have plenty experienced players, like Mertesacker, Flamini, Monreal, Sanchez. Something is badly wrong with the mentality, the way we approach games. Arteta spoke about it before the Anderlecht game, Mertesacker mentioned it now.

We have now surrendered most points from winning positions in the league: 9. Meaning we would have 26 now, just three behind Chelsea. As it is, we sit sixth, having garnered just one more point than United and just three more than Liverpool, Tottenham and Everton, who we've all considered laughing stock. Until now, that is.

And the solution? The only reasonable one I can see is making this team work with the manager we have. Changing managers mid-season is nigh on impossible, cause no one is available (no one better than Wenger, bottom line) and it can also be potentially risky. A new guy will need time to settle in and we need points now. So Arsene should try and make this team play and stay in charge at least till the end of the season. And then we'll see.

That's it. Long two weeks of misery and self-reflection ahead. I'll be back with you when I find the time and something worthwhile to write about.

Until later

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)