Southampton preview: rotation inevitable

Evening folks.

Tonight we play Southampton in Capital One Cup and I think the squad should be quite different to the one that took on Villa.

The back five

I fully expect Ospina to make his first appearance this season. The Colombian international shrugged off his health problems a while ago and has already made the bench at least thrice. However, given Szczesny's form, there was no reason to introduce Ospina to the proceedings. This should change tonight, as a) even goalkeepers need rest b) rotation is a commonplace in the cups. Last year we had Fabianski to feature on the cups, now it's Ospina. If the Colombian impresses, Wenger will be given a nice selection headache on Saturday.

Our defensive options are scarce and that's not a good thing. Things got off to a bad start yesterday, as Arsene confirmed Debuchy has undergone surgery on his ankle  and will spend three months out of the game. The situation quickly deteriorated, as Monreal's back injury will ensure the Spaniard will be unavailable for selection up until mid-October.

That means we have four fit senior defenders to get us through four games. And Chambers is on three bookings already. Should he start tonight and get another yellow, he'll risk missing our away trip to Stamford Bridge.

That's why I expect the Englishman to be a bench sub at best. Arsene said how he'll give a chance to his younger players to prove themselves, so Bellerin and Hayden are both favourites to start at right-back and centre-back respectively.

I'd play Koscielny alongside Hayden (both to guide the youngster and to keep Chambers wrapped in cotton wool), but the left-back position is a worry. With Monreal out and Gibbs in need of a breather, it's between Flamini and Coquelin. A hard pick, as both aren't that convincing. I'd personally go with the Frenchman, as he has more experience playing on the left and also seems more mobile, but you never know what Arsene will come up with.

While Southampton is not that formidable an opponent, I still don't like the paucity of our options at the back. There's no point in complaining about the lack of cover, now that we can't change anything, but there's growing desperation among Arsenal fans. There are calls already for free agents. Some started wondering whether we can terminate Jenks' loan. All in all, the situation is unhealthy. I hope we'll make it alright till Monreal is back. Then we should strongly consider boosting our options during the January transfer window.

The midfield

I'm certain Arteta, Ramsey and Ozil will all be rested. They've played a lot of games and will play more still, so a little R&R is in order.

Also, I'm pretty certain Diaby will start his first competitive game this season, especially after the Frenchman was backed by Arsene.

I don't have a problem with this decision. Diaby is a good player, who must be the unluckiest footballer alive to miss so many games through so many injures. Though we've stopped relying on Abou's services long ago, I sincerely hope he can contribute to our cause between now and May. If he does, he may just earn himself a new contract.

It is also very unfortunate for us Diaby played so little during his spell with Arsenal. He's that quick and tough DM everyone wants and he could have become a vital player for us, has he not been injured all the time. I still hope the Frenchman will recover and stay fit and have that bright future Arsene is talking about.

Further up field we have a plethora of options. Rosicky is an almost guaranteed starter today, but who be his partner in central midfield? With Diaby in the squad I doubt it will be Coquelin or Flamini, while Wilshere's style is too similar to that of the Czech. It's an interesting problem for Arsene to sort out. I'd tip Oxlade to start, as he's not in the first team picture right now and we all know his best games came when the Englishman was deployed centrally. Here's your guess is as good as mine.

The attack

I'd say the flanks are pretty obvious, with Poldi and Campbell strong favourites to start, so it's the lone striker position that interests me the most.

There were whispers Alexis can play, but I don't think it's a good idea. Yes, he was rested against Villa, but he'll definitely be crucial in our next three games, so playing him now won't do anyone any good.

I think that position is up for grabs between Akpom and Sanogo and I'm not sure I'd go with the latter. I know Arsene puts a lot of trust into his compatriot, I know it's important for Sanogo (who hasn't even made the bench for the last three games) to finally score an official goal, but we have to think about the good of the team first. And Akpom deserves his chance more than Sanogo. Simply because he's more convincing. So I'd play him, but it remains to be seen, whether Arsene agrees with this.

The verdict

We've been taking long and hard about how good our bench is and it's for a reason. You can't boast a strong bench and then fume when the manager rotates. It's normal, we have a big squad and a lot of capable players, who, I'm sure, are more than up for the task. Not only do I expect Arsenal to win tonight, I think I have every right to expect a beautiful performance.

So c'mon you Gunners.

And I'll be back with you on Wednesday/Thursday with the usual review.

Until then

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)

Aston Villa 0-3 Arsenal: that's more like it

A jolly good evening to you.

We have jump-started our campaign a couple of hours ago after taking apart Aston Villa at their ground. Our performance was vastly different to the one we had in midweek and I suspect it may be down to some slight changes.

The squad

As I've said before the game, what I would do and what Arsene Wenger would do are two different things, the only question is the extent.

The back four was pretty predictable, though we had no Flamini or Bellerin on the bench, and it was a concern late in the game, as Chambers was hanging by a thread.

In midfield Mikel Arteta started in the holding position, with Ramsey playing close to the Spaniard and Ozil deployed under Welbeck (thank God). Cazorla and Oxlade-Chamberlain occupied the flanks, coming in for Sanchez and Wilshere respectively. I think we played a 4-2-3-1, though the site showed a 4-1-4-1. It's not that important, really. What IS important, is Ozil's performance. He didn't have to worry about defensive work anymore (though the German has put himself about very energetically) and thus blossomed.

The first half

It was quite lethargic up until the 30-minute mark. However, I take my hat off for Szczesny, who has made two big saves in that period. First came from the Pole's own mistake. His clearance under pressure fell to Delph, who ran half the length of the field, played a one-two with some bloke and let fly, but Wojciech was up for it. The second save came minutes later, after Clark's headed effort from point-blank range hit Szczesny's chest. These saves proved vital in building up our confidence.

120 seconds later we took the lead. Danny Welbeck cut open Villa's defense with a gorgeous pass, Ozil escaped his marker with ease and slotted the ball home calmly.

Seconds later the German turned provider. His (no less gorgeous) pass from the right found Welbeck in the box and Danny smashed the ball into the roof of the net for his first goal.

In a minute the game as a contest was over. Gibbs's misplaced low cross met with Cissokho's outstretched leg and we were 3-0 up. Ozil could have scored another in the dying seconds of the first 45 minutes, but put his effort wide after a clever pass from Ramsey.

The second half

It was wonderfully boring. We were in full control of the situation and 80% possession rate (second half only) showed that. Villa were, for some unknown reason, very lethargic and, apart from one Agbonlahor's dribble didn't come close to creating anything even remotely dangerous.

Arsenal, meanwhile, was content to just keep the ball without going forward too much, though Ramsey still saw a good effort slid just wide of the post. Arsene made a triple sub at around the 70th minute mark, with Wilshere, Rosicky and Podolski coming on for Ramsey, Oxlade and Welbeck respectively, but it was just about the only interesting thing about that second half. And that's brilliant, let me tell you. The game ended 3-0.

The aftermath

"It was the response we needed after Tuesday. Aston Villa started quite well and they had one or two dangerous situations, but after that we were in control and we scored three goals in three minutes. Then in the second half it was a possession game, a controlled game, because they didn’t come out too much. Overall it’s still a convincing win where [Danny] Welbeck scored, [Mesut] Ozil scored, and that’s important as well."

That's what Arsene said about our performance. A fair assessment. I'm very happy for both Ozil and Welbeck. Both players needed this good performance, though the reasons differentiated slightly. Welbeck is just a new man, who needed to establish himself, while Ozil has been unfairly criticised lately.

on whether Arsene is tempted to stick with today’s system

"I adapted a bit game by game. There is a little difference but not a major one. Ozil played today behind their midfield because I thought they made it very tight. But it’s important for us to find Ozil between the lines and move the game forward. It worked, but he can play everywhere. I believe that the team played well and after it’s easier for everybody."

Well, frankly, I don't care much which formation we use as long as we perform the way we did today. It wasn't that easy to win 3-0. Aston Villa was in good form, played on home turf, while we were fresh exhausted from our midweek away trip and mentally challenged to bounce back from a disappointing performance and result. We showed once again we can do it, and it's brilliant.

That's it for today. Have yourselves a very good weekend and I'll be back here as soon as something new pops up.

Until then

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)

Aston Villa preview: time to get back on track

Morning all.

We have an away game at Villa Park today and there are problems to solve and decisions to make before the game's kick-off.

The most important question is what formation we should use against our opposition. I'm all for going back to 4-2-3-1 as it was mostly effective last season, but we all know how Arsene doesn't like to abandon his ideas, so I'm expecting a 4-1-4-1 again. With that bit almost certain, we can try guessing who'll play.

The back five

Szczesny did make a couple of mistakes against Borussia, but I'm convinced we would have conceded more were it not for the Pole. Then again, you don't drop your number 1 after just one bad game. So I think Wojciech will start. Ospina should get his chance in midweek, though.

The back four, again, picks itself. Gibbs, Mert and Kos should start, and, barring injury to Chambers he should play too.

Yes, Bellerin wasn't that bad against Borussia, far from our worst performer and much better after the Ox was introduced, but he's still, in my view, completely ready.

The most problematic bit about the young Spaniard's game is his over-zealousness to come forward. It's great when your full-backs can do that, but experience is needed to find the right balance between defending and attacking. Experience Bellerin doesn't have (yet), so any opposition will exploit that trait of his. Furthermore, with Ozil in front of Hector our defense is definitely susceptible to quick counters down the right flank. Chambers should get the nod, therefore, especially since he's recovered from tonsillitis.

Apart from these five we don't have any defenders available. Monreal is out with a back injury, and the boss said he doesn't know, how long Nacho will spend on the sidelines. Debuchy, meanwhile, is down with an ankle injury and we'll have to get by without the Frenchman for six to twelve weeks, depending on whether surgery is needed.

Grim news, all in all, so Flamini should, from now, be considered a defender and used sparingly and only from the bench. That seems the most rational thing to do, in my opinion.

The midfield

Arteta will most likely continue in his holding role and that's something I'm more than a bit worried about. He was outrun by Borussia and, though the team as a whole underperformed (which, I suspect, can also be down to having a very physical game against City), Arteta was fresh. He played just five minutes in that weekend rollercoaster, so he shouldn't have looked that weak.

We also have to keep in mind last year's defeat to Villa at the Emirates. Both their penalties and a goal from open play came about after quick counters, so Arteta may not be an ideal candidate to, erm, counter these attacks.

Truth be told, I'd like to see Ramsey in that holding position. I'm pretty sure he can be effective there and, more importantly, he won't clash with Wilshere this way, so it may be an ideal solution for all parties. We'll see what happens, but I don't hold out much hope for this scenario.

In central midfield, I'd introduce Cazorla alongside Wilshere. The Spaniard is fresh, he can shake things up and become that ace up our sleeve.  If Arsene persists with Ozil on the flank, Cazorla can also become invaluable in distributing passes and making smooth transitions between defense and attack. What is more, Santi is no stranger to taking men on and his stock rises further still because of that.

Another solution is a Wilshere-Rosicky duo, but here we'll face the same problem as with a Wilshere-Ramsey pairing. Rosicky's style of play is too similar to Jack's, that's why I'm not keen on seeing these two play in roughly the same position.

The attack

Can Welbeck start a third game inside one week? If he can, should he? He's missed a couple of brilliant chances against City and Borussia and, while he's a new man and all that, we can't just write these misses off. However, I expect the Englishman to continue, as we all know how Wenger trusts his players even if no one else does and this, more often than not, allows them to bloom and deliver.

It may be still early days to deploy Sanchez in that lone forward position, especially considering our rather defensive formation. So I expect to see the Chilean to start on one of the flanks, interchanging positions with whoever occupies the other wing.

And here we come to the most pressing question: should Ozil play? I think he's likely to, taken into account how Arsene has once again shielded the German from criticism:

“Why should he be be a scapegoat? We've lost one game since April 1. Let's be realistic. We've come out of a very difficult preparation period with decisive games.

Criticism is a bit unfair because I believe that our offensive talents on Tuesday night were not in their best condition, and they couldn’t express that talent. On the other hand it’s post-World Cup. He came back on August 11. You know it takes a few months for them to get back to their best, that can happen."

However, I still want the Ox to start. Give Ozil a breather. He needs one not only on the physical, but on the mental front as well. Use him as a sub once. Put him out of the firing line for a while. Please, Arsene.

The verdict

"The easiest thing nowadays is to have an opinion. Everybody has one." I too have one and I'm going to air it. That's why we are here, right? To exchange opinions.

If it was up to me, I'd put out this squad against Villa: Szczesny - Chambers - Mertesacker - Koscielny - Gibbs - Ramsey - Wilshere - Cazorla - Sanchez - Oxlade - Welbeck. I think it has a mix of freshness (we need some rotation, the players can't take three games a week) and in-form players.

However, I trust Arsene's judgement. He's been a manager at a top club for 18 years and is much, much better at doing his thing, than me or anyone on Twitter. We'll see what squad AW puts out, but I think it'll be quite different to mine. And I'm fine with it, if we deliver.

And we have to deliver. Not only get a win, but to really perform. No excuses for today. We have a big squad, chock-full of quality players. We haven't won a game in PL since that opening day. Work your magic, Arsene.

That's it for now. Fingers crossed we'll do what we must later and I'll be back with you for a review some time between today and Monday.

C'mon you Gunners

Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Arsenal: awful

Today, I don't know where to start. I'm not even sure I want to. Needs must, though, I guess.

Overview

As you surely know by now, Arsenal went down to Borussia yesterday. We've lost 2-0 and the margin could have been a lot wider but for some Szczesny heroics and the Germans' wastefulness. By the time the final whistle blew I wished I was stuck at work (if I had it) or in a traffic jam. Anywhere but before the laptop's screen. The reason is simple: we were atrocious. Last time we nicked a win in Dortmund, but few will argue we deserved it. Sure, Arsenal was dominated the entire game back then, but our brilliant defense coupled with lighting-quick counters ensured we got the three points, while also restricting Klopp's side to very few chances. This time around, we were simply dominated.

The first half

Despite Debuchy's and Monreal's absence we had a very strong squad. Bellerin, Gibbs and Arteta respectively were the only new faces compared to our weekend's line-up.

The squad was the only thing reminiscent of Sunday. It quickly became apparent Borussia would set the tone for this one and so they did.

Despite missing a slew of key players, the Germans had no problems breaking us down. Most of their attacks came down our right side and it's perfectly understandable: Bellerin and Ozil occupied this side. The former seemed out of his depth and was often caught out of position, while the latter was just not interested in tracking back in the slightest.

However, Bellerin was far from our weakest link. His compatriot Mikel Arteta has somehow disappeared from sight and was nowhere to be found. Which means Borussia broke through our defense right down the middle as well.

They didn't even need Reus and Blaszczykowski to make us look pathetic. When someone of Mkhitaryan's level has so many chances, it tells you a lot about the way we defended.

Surprisingly, we could have been in front around the half-hour's mark. Ramsey found some space in front of Borussia's box and sidefooted a clever pass into Welbeck's path, only for the latter to put his effort wide of the far post. Should he have gone for the near post? I don't know, but I know one thing: the scores remained level.

At the other end every Borussia's attack was genuinely threatening, with Immobile and Abameyang given free reign. That we have only conceded once and so late in the half is down to Szczesny, who at one point denied Abameyang from point-black range.

Before the game I mentioned how important it is not to fall prey of the counter-attacks. And yet we did exactly that, once again.

In our typical fashion, the opposition's attack started with our throw-in, deep in their half, gone bad. Immobile picked up the ball near the central circle, ran half the length of the field completely untroubled by our defenders (Arteta was nowhere to be found) and put his shot past Szczesny. You can joke all you like, but our defense looked much more Immobile than the man himself. The whistle blew immediately after the goal, we weren't even given time for one attack. Not that I think we would have conjured something up, but still.

The second half

Things needed changing, but no substitutions were made. And so we carried on, in the exact same manner.

Borussia punished us three minutes into the half. A simple one-two over our defenders was all it took to send Abameyang clear and he doubled his team's lead without much problems, putting the ball into an empty net. Szczesny tried to intercept the pass to Abameyang, you see, but couldn't do this.

We could have been 3-0 down shortly after that, but that joke of a player (Mkhitaryan) smashed his shot over with the goal at his mercy.

On the hour we've finally seen a substitution, even a double one. Oxlade and Cazorla came on for Ozil and Ramsey respectively.

Suddenly, Bellerin started looking much more the part. The reason for this is blindingly obvious: the Ox worked his socks off in defense. Cazorla added some quality to our passing, but couldn't do much else.

Poldi then made his entrance, after looking for his shin pad for what seemed like an eternity. In an attempt to save the game (which was beyond saving after the second goal), Wenger took off Arteta.

We created two chances in the dying minutes, but both weren't capitalised on. Podolski could have scored after being sent clean through, but the shot never came, while Welbeck created a chance for himself only to consequently smash the ball over. 2-0 it ended and, in truth, we can consider ourselves lucky. A more clinical team would have put the game beyond our reach inside the first 30 minutes.

The aftermath

This game highlighted exactly why a 4-1-4-1 doesn't work. For it to be effective, we need a beast of a DM, who can do all the dirty work by himself and wingers that retrace their steps and help the full-backs.

Arteta/Flamini just aren't that prolific in defense. If they receive no support from the midfielders, they will fall short. Simple as that.

Regarding the second issue, we no longer have Sagna or Debuchy, each of whom can manage on their own. For the next couple of months it's Bellerin or Chambers on the right and these guys need help. The kind of help Gibbs gets from Sanchez, though something tells me the Englishman would survive by himself just fine. He's a lot more experienced than either Bellerin or Chambers.

That's why I hope for a Bayern-like transformation. Do you recall that 3-1 defeat in 2013? Of course you do, things like that are hard to forget. But it's not about the defeat, it's about how we reacted to it.

At that time, we didn't have Ozil, Sanchez, Welbeck. Ramsey was out of form and Wilshere was, unless I'm mistaken, injured. At this point Arsene realised he just doesn't have the players to implement the attacking kind of football the Frenchman loves. And so he adapted.

He dropped Vermaelen and replaced him with a much more assured Koscielny. He dropped Szcsesny for his antics and gave the green light to Fabianski. He introduced Ramsey alongside Arteta, so the Spaniard wouldn't have to do all the defensive work on his own. He built a team around the back four and set a number 1 priority: do not concede. You all remember what happened after. We took 26 points out of 30, drawing only with United and Everton and got that fourth place.

In the summer we added Ozil and Ramsey blossomed, but our early results were again down to a rock-solid defense. 2-0 was our favouite scoreline this time last year.

Arsene has to do something like this again. This time around we have Sanchez and Welbeck and Ozil and CAN play the Arsenal way. Quick passing, counters, flashy moves. But we seem unable to do so whilst utilising a 4-1-4-1 formation. Too many players are uncomfortable with it. Full-backs don't get enough support. Arteta is left alone. Jack's and Ramsey's styles clash, cause these are two similar. Ozil is ineffective on the wing. Going back to 4-2-3-1 may just solve our problems. And I really hope Wenger will give it a long and hard thought.

Until later

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)

Borussia preview: weed out the mistakes

It's Borussia Dortmund today and Arsene faces something of a selection headache. But, while his options up front are basically limitless, it's the defense that worries me. So a guessing game is in order.

The back five

Szczesny should once again get the green light to start between the sticks. He was instrumental in getting us a point on Saturday and it's a real pity the Pole still has no clean sheets in BPL to his name. Goes to show how hard it is to not concede.

In defense, we only have five senior players. Throw in Bellerin and we have six, but him and Chambers are just 19 years of age. This is really scary. With Debuchy out, most likely for two months, we have a right-back dilemma to solve.

Chambers looks the obvious choice, but playing him means having no cover for Per and Kos. On the other hand, it's too much to ask Bellerin to start week in, week out. He's good, better than Jenks, in my view, but is he up for the task? Can the young Spaniard hold out approximately for 15 games, games, in which we need to be getting points?

We can go for the safer option and play Chambers (who is a 50/50, mind you) and have Bellerin on the bench. Problem is, Monreal is carrying a knock and hasn't travelled with the squad, so risking Chambers in this particular game can prove dangerous. Whichever way you look at the situation, we are short in defense.

The other three defenders basically pick themselves: Gibbs, Koscielny and Mertesacker.

Midfield

Plethora of options here. I've seen someone on Twitter suggest we should try Ramsey in a holding position and, while this is a rather unconventional choice, it does make sense.

With Flamini below par and Arteta dropped (who would have thought? I certainly didn't), Ramsey is the best option. The threat he poses in the attacking third has dwindled down a bit (he and Wilshere just can't be efficient doing the same thing), but his restless energy and fighting spirit remain. I'm sure the Welshman will put in a good shift in the fabled DM position, as he's more disciplined than Wilshere, more combative than Flamini and is a better runner than Arteta.

However, I also wouldn't be surprised should Arteta start. He's the captain, after all, and I think his absence on Saturday was more down to not being fully fit rather than Wenger deciding there are better alternatives to the Spaniard. Arteta's omission can be down to both factors, of course.

In central midfield I'd go with a Wilshere-Ramsey or Wilshere-Cazorla duo, depending on who starts in DM. With Jack there should be no questions. He was our best performer, he's clearly found some form and to drop the Englishman now may just undo all the good.

Cazorla, meanwhile, also had a good run of games, so his absence against City came as a little shock. I'm all for starting Santi alongside Jack, they seem to have forged a good understanding and their playstyles are different, whereas Jack's and Aaron's are too similar.

Attack

Welbeck looks the most obvious CF option to me, though Alexis is always a possibility. He offers different qualities to these of the Englishman and the manager may just want to utilise the Chilean's pace and energy to cause trouble to Borussia. We'll see, what happens, but personally I tip Welbeck to start.

On the flanks, Ozil is set to play another game. I've seen endless criticism of both how the German performs there and how Arsene shouldn't use Mesut on the left. However, I've also seen an interesting assumption as to why Wenger persists on shifting Ozil out wide: fitness. The Frenchman wants Mesut to get used to the physicality of the Premier League. He's done the same with Wilshere last year and with Ramsey a little earlier, so I won't be surprised if he's doing it again.

See, for all his prodigious skills and vision, Ozil is not much of a fighter. His presence in the centre of the park is both positive and negative. Positive because the German is able to see the pitch better and spray his inch-perfect passes. Negative because he rarely tracks back to help defenders and, upon losing the ball, rarely offers resistance to get it back. In this sense, both Wilshere and Ramsey are better candidates. You've seen what they are capable of against City. So, while it is frustrating to watch Ozil struggle, I don't think he'll be played on the left/right permanently.

The other flank is either Alexis or Cazorla/Chamberlain, should Sanchez be deployed as a traditional number 9. Personally, I wouldn't fix what isn't broken and play the same attacking trio as on Saturday.

The verdict

When it comes to attacking, it's clear we can give anyone a run for their money. We have a lot of quality players, each of whom can trouble the opposition and, moreover, we've seen these players click against City. Should they once again find their rhythm, we should have little problem breaking through Borussia's defense.

It's at the back where we look vulnerable. Only Gibbs, Mertesacker, Koscielny and Bellerin are completely fit, while Chambers is a 50/50. Beyond that, we have no cover for this game. Flamini can play at the back, Coquelin can do likewise, but these are fixes, which may, or may not, work. And even if they do, these aren't permanent solutions. Fingers crossed our defense will do well and come through the same unscathed. We really cannot afford to lose another player in that department.

Actually, I have a positive feeling about this match. I feel like we can win it (we have last year, didn't we?), should we get the basics in defense right. Don't concede from set-pieces and from the first shot on target and we'll make it just fine.

Alright, that's it for today. Back with a review on Wednesday/Thursday.

Until then and c'mon you Gunners

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)