Saturday 20 September 2014

Aston Villa preview: time to get back on track

Morning all.

We have an away game at Villa Park today and there are problems to solve and decisions to make before the game's kick-off.

The most important question is what formation we should use against our opposition. I'm all for going back to 4-2-3-1 as it was mostly effective last season, but we all know how Arsene doesn't like to abandon his ideas, so I'm expecting a 4-1-4-1 again. With that bit almost certain, we can try guessing who'll play.

The back five

Szczesny did make a couple of mistakes against Borussia, but I'm convinced we would have conceded more were it not for the Pole. Then again, you don't drop your number 1 after just one bad game. So I think Wojciech will start. Ospina should get his chance in midweek, though.

The back four, again, picks itself. Gibbs, Mert and Kos should start, and, barring injury to Chambers he should play too.

Yes, Bellerin wasn't that bad against Borussia, far from our worst performer and much better after the Ox was introduced, but he's still, in my view, completely ready.

The most problematic bit about the young Spaniard's game is his over-zealousness to come forward. It's great when your full-backs can do that, but experience is needed to find the right balance between defending and attacking. Experience Bellerin doesn't have (yet), so any opposition will exploit that trait of his. Furthermore, with Ozil in front of Hector our defense is definitely susceptible to quick counters down the right flank. Chambers should get the nod, therefore, especially since he's recovered from tonsillitis.

Apart from these five we don't have any defenders available. Monreal is out with a back injury, and the boss said he doesn't know, how long Nacho will spend on the sidelines. Debuchy, meanwhile, is down with an ankle injury and we'll have to get by without the Frenchman for six to twelve weeks, depending on whether surgery is needed.

Grim news, all in all, so Flamini should, from now, be considered a defender and used sparingly and only from the bench. That seems the most rational thing to do, in my opinion.

The midfield

Arteta will most likely continue in his holding role and that's something I'm more than a bit worried about. He was outrun by Borussia and, though the team as a whole underperformed (which, I suspect, can also be down to having a very physical game against City), Arteta was fresh. He played just five minutes in that weekend rollercoaster, so he shouldn't have looked that weak.

We also have to keep in mind last year's defeat to Villa at the Emirates. Both their penalties and a goal from open play came about after quick counters, so Arteta may not be an ideal candidate to, erm, counter these attacks.

Truth be told, I'd like to see Ramsey in that holding position. I'm pretty sure he can be effective there and, more importantly, he won't clash with Wilshere this way, so it may be an ideal solution for all parties. We'll see what happens, but I don't hold out much hope for this scenario.

In central midfield, I'd introduce Cazorla alongside Wilshere. The Spaniard is fresh, he can shake things up and become that ace up our sleeve.  If Arsene persists with Ozil on the flank, Cazorla can also become invaluable in distributing passes and making smooth transitions between defense and attack. What is more, Santi is no stranger to taking men on and his stock rises further still because of that.

Another solution is a Wilshere-Rosicky duo, but here we'll face the same problem as with a Wilshere-Ramsey pairing. Rosicky's style of play is too similar to Jack's, that's why I'm not keen on seeing these two play in roughly the same position.

The attack

Can Welbeck start a third game inside one week? If he can, should he? He's missed a couple of brilliant chances against City and Borussia and, while he's a new man and all that, we can't just write these misses off. However, I expect the Englishman to continue, as we all know how Wenger trusts his players even if no one else does and this, more often than not, allows them to bloom and deliver.

It may be still early days to deploy Sanchez in that lone forward position, especially considering our rather defensive formation. So I expect to see the Chilean to start on one of the flanks, interchanging positions with whoever occupies the other wing.

And here we come to the most pressing question: should Ozil play? I think he's likely to, taken into account how Arsene has once again shielded the German from criticism:

“Why should he be be a scapegoat? We've lost one game since April 1. Let's be realistic. We've come out of a very difficult preparation period with decisive games.

Criticism is a bit unfair because I believe that our offensive talents on Tuesday night were not in their best condition, and they couldn’t express that talent. On the other hand it’s post-World Cup. He came back on August 11. You know it takes a few months for them to get back to their best, that can happen."

However, I still want the Ox to start. Give Ozil a breather. He needs one not only on the physical, but on the mental front as well. Use him as a sub once. Put him out of the firing line for a while. Please, Arsene.

The verdict

"The easiest thing nowadays is to have an opinion. Everybody has one." I too have one and I'm going to air it. That's why we are here, right? To exchange opinions.

If it was up to me, I'd put out this squad against Villa: Szczesny - Chambers - Mertesacker - Koscielny - Gibbs - Ramsey - Wilshere - Cazorla - Sanchez - Oxlade - Welbeck. I think it has a mix of freshness (we need some rotation, the players can't take three games a week) and in-form players.

However, I trust Arsene's judgement. He's been a manager at a top club for 18 years and is much, much better at doing his thing, than me or anyone on Twitter. We'll see what squad AW puts out, but I think it'll be quite different to mine. And I'm fine with it, if we deliver.

And we have to deliver. Not only get a win, but to really perform. No excuses for today. We have a big squad, chock-full of quality players. We haven't won a game in PL since that opening day. Work your magic, Arsene.

That's it for now. Fingers crossed we'll do what we must later and I'll be back with you for a review some time between today and Monday.

C'mon you Gunners



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