Friday 21 November 2014

Manchester United preview: kick it off, kick it out

Evening everyone.

We take on Manchester United tomorrow in what will be a late kick-off and I've run out of imperatives of how important it is for us to win games.

This time around, however, I feel much calmer than I usually do before big games. That may be down to several reasons: the fact our last disappointment happened two weeks ago, the shakiness of United's defense or Emirates slowly becoming a fortress. Something Arsene acknowledged:

“But we are strong at home. We have learnt to be patient and to wait for our chances without losing our shape. [Yes] we've had many draws. But there's no block there. We feel strong at home and we have had a good record in the last 25 games"

Arsene also gave the customary injury update and this allows us to play the "Guess who?" game once again.

The back five

Copy. Paste. No, honestly, even with fit defenders and keepers you don't expect the back five to be reshuffled every game. And having everyone available is not the case here. However, Arsene shed some light on when Debuchy and Koscielny might return:

"Koscielny and Debuchy are doing well, they are out on the field [working] again. We have to see now. Usually field work is three weeks away from full group training. Then there is fitness. It looks straightforward for Debuchy. It's not inflammation, it's just repairing surgery. For Koscielny, it depends how well he responds to training. At the moment he looks good."

The funny bit comes when Arsene talks in such a way that gives you an idea Debuchy may return earlier than Koscielny. Imagine the scenes amongst Arsenal fans if this happens.

Without these two, I can, of course, suggest that it's better to play Chambers at CB and Bellerin at RB, but I somehow don't think Wenger will make that switch. He wants as stable a back-four as possible in the absence of the two Frenchmen, changing it now will mean destabilising it once more. Thank God Rvp and Rooney aren't very good at heading the ball, while Falcao is out of the picture.

The midfield

Ah, the joy of having almost everyone available. Well, almost. Apart from Ozil. Probably the player we need most. The irony. Moving on, however.

Now it really is a tough job to suggest the three midfielders. I'd personally start Arteta and Wilshere at the base of the midfield. The former is much better at defending and organising the midfield than both Flamini and Ramsey. The latter has
  1. shown glimpses of promise in the holding role for England
  2. the crucial ability to make a decisive impact in big games (see: City)
That also means dropping Ramsey and Flamini and it's the Welshman who'd be hard to omit. Maybe it's better to slot him alongside Arteta and move Wilshere further upfield? I'd say this will help us maintain possession better, something that's hard to achieve with Sanchez under the striker.

We also know how keen Arsene is to make a Wilshere-Ramsey partnership work, but it'll be a big gamble to start these two at the base. Ramsey this year is very different to Ramsey last year, while a handful of games for England will hardly make Jack a pro DM, so we need Arteta for this one.

Further up it's either Wilshere or Sanchez and it's a tough call. They are very different players in terms of what they bring to the side, so this is a riddle for Arsene to solve.

The attack

Walcott in, Walcott out, Walcott in, Walcott out, that's what it's all about. Arsene said he doesn't think Theo will be available, but the Englishman took part in a full training session today, so I wonder whether our manager might be playing mind games.

However, I won't get my hopes high. I'd go for the less optimistic scenario and assume Theo will only make the bench. In this case, Oxlade is likely to play on the right, with either Cazorla or Sanchez on the left.

Another question is who starts up front. Welbeck is a doubt (again, if Wenger is to be believed on this one), which leaves us with several options:

  1. Giroud up front. Everyone loves the HFB, of course, but I don't think he's ready yet.
  2. Sanchez up front. This will probably mean an Arteta-Ramsey-Wilshere trio in midfield. Not bad, but it remains to be seen how Sanchez will fare up front on his own. He is not exactly a target man.
  3. Sanogo up front. God forbid. Don't even know why I put him here.
  4. Podolski up front. The fact that he's below Sanogo for this role tells you all you need to know about the German's chances of starting in the forward position.
  5. Campbell up front. Perhaps I should stop now.
So, realistically speaking, it's either Giroud or Sanchez and I'm leaning towards the latter. Firstly, the Frenchman isn't yet ready to play for 90 minutes, secondly, Sanchez will go through United's make-shift defense like a knife through butter. But Welbeck will probably start nonetheless. In his case the chances of Wenger playing mind games are stronger, than with Walcott.

The verdict

The manager has enough options and firepower in the forward position for us to win the game, but it's the defense (naturally) that worries me. That's why we need to protect our defenders as much as we can. That's why omitting Arteta, Oxlade or even Cazorla can be a huge risk. All these players track back to help the defenders. That's why Sanchez and Welbeck should play (apart from their contribution further upfield, of course). Steady our defense and we are in for three points. Fail, and the likes of Rooney and Di Maria can punish us.

C'mon you Gunners. Buckle the trend, beat United. Put in a performance.

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)




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