On Szczesny, transfers and brinkmanship

Good evening.

It's been a bit quiet in terms of Arsenal-related news for the last couple of days. And this probably shouldn't come as a surprise: the last game was won (so no introspection is required), our next FA Cup opponent is not Bayern Munich and the situation on the injury front is about to be drastically improved with the returns of Flamini, Ramsey, Ozil, Welbeck and Giroud. Still, there are bits and pieces I'd like to discuss. Starting with

Szczmoking habits

The story of our №1 goalkeeper having a smoke in the showers after the defeat to Saints has been all over the newspapers. Initially, some reports hinted at a row between the manager and Wojciech. A falling-out (if there was one) is understandable: a self-inflicted 2-0 defeat, with Chezza the main man to blame on one hand, and a dissatisfied Arsene on the other. These reports were consequently squashed by Arsenal's press team, but soon others emerged: these of Wojciech being punished for having a smoke in the showers. For that the Pole was allegedly fined £20 000 and there is no consensus reached on whether or not Wojciech would be dropped and if he would be, then for how long.

The bit about fining Szczesny doesn't worry me in the slightest: he's a wealthy guy earning £100k per week. It's pocket money for him, literally a day's work. The smoking itself also is of little concern to me. As long as it doesn't affect his performances, he can smoke three packs a day for all I care: he's a grown man who can decide for himself what's in his best interests.

But here we've come to the most important part: DOES smoking affect his performances? If this incident in the showers is a one-off, then definitely not. However, if Wojciech has made a habit of it and it's influencing the way he plays, then he should be dropped.

I think this particular "dropping" bit should be decided solely on the Pole's performances. As for me, I think a spell on the sidelines can do Chezza some good. The impression he's left this season is not particularly shiny: only 3 clean sheets in 24 games and a stupid red card against Galatasaray. Add the absolutely atrocious performance against Southampton on top and both Ospina and Martinez look better-placed to protect our goal right now. Damian has three clean sheets in four starts, Ospina has one in two.

So I'd drop Szczesny and give the Colombian a run in the side. He's had a solid performance against Hull (they didn't prove much of a threat, but still) and, as I've said, it can be highly educational for Szczesny. One such spell on the bench back in 2013 brought about the desired effect, so we can repeat the experiment.

Transfers

No, we haven't brought anyone in. Right now Bielik and Perrin seem our most likely transfer targets, but there are question marks over the latter, because, though he himself claimed to have been contacted by Arsene, Saint-Etienne denied receiving any bids.

However, I'm not too worried we haven't bought anyone yet: we always tend to close deals very late in the transfer window, so I don't expect any arrivals before the last week, most probably before the very last day. Yes, there are beautiful exceptions to us buying players early in the window (Sanchez, Giroud), but: a) I cannot recall us buying early in winter b) it's the exception, not the norm. The norm is Ozil, Welbeck, Arteta etc.

It's the game of brinkmanship Wenger plays and who would blame him? When Bony goes for £30 million to consequently sit on the bench or Falcao's loan is worth £20 million, Arsene is really trying to find value for the money he pays. As he often does just that, I see no sense in questioning the way he does things.

Finally, if you are still getting worked up because of Podolski's departure, check out this article. It explains why exactly losing Podolski isn't such a big loss after all.

That's it for now. Back with a preview on the 10th, most likely.

Until then

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)

Arsenal 2-0 Hull: Alexis the difference as we progress into the 4th round

Well, that was much better, wasn't it? A deserved win, a convincing performance from back to front and we end the hectic Christmas schedule on a high note. A really nice day at the office.

The squad

It received an injection of fresh blood, but also managed to maintain a rather serious look about it. Ospina, Bellerin, Chambers, Monreal, Campbell and Walcott all came in (the Englishman starting his first game in exactly a year). The side didn't look unbalanced despite so many changes, however. A team better than Hull could have probably exploited our flanks, as neither Monreal and Campbell, nor Bellerin and Walcott have played together before (and are unlikely to do so anytime soon), but we should given a break already. While City, United and Chelsea entertained themselves with the likes of Sheffield, Yovil and Watford, we played a Premier League side in the very first round.

The first half

We set out with a serious intention of putting Hull under pressure and scoring as early as we can and it's fair to say we succeeded on both fronts.

We could have taken the lead in the 5th minute already, when a one-two between Campbell and Sanchez saw the former clean through, but Joel's effort was saved by Harper. I cannot say it was a particularly bad shot or a spectacular save, so I'll settle for "A player with more minutes would have tucked it away".

Next chance fell to Sanchez (who once again started and once again did so in the CF position). The Chilean was sent through on goal by Walcott and saw his first shot blocked, before sending a rebound over the bar/ However, we went ahead soon after that.

Surprisingly, the goal came from a corner. After the first delivery from Santi was cleared at the near post (just stop crossing there already), Sanchez took the ball from the Spaniard and showed how things should be done. The Chilean's corner was met with a thumping header from Mertesacker and the board lit up to show 1-0 to the Arsenal.

The former Barcelona man could have scored himself after Rosicky sent Alexis through. Sanchez gratefully took the ball, rounded off the keeper and released a powerful low shot, only for McShane to clear if off the line. Sagbo nearly scored an own goal from a resulting corner, but Harper was on hand to save again. Hull, meanwhile, had only Ince's shot to show for their (non-existent) attacking effort. And so the first half ended 1-0.

The second half

For some reason, we decided to put the foot of the gas, gifting Hull the ball. It was as if we dared them to try and score. Only some twenty minutes into the half (when we started attacking again) did it cross my mind that half our squad played a lot of minutes recently and were just tired to produce a stunning attacking display for the whole 90 minutes.

However, not much happened inside these first 20 minutes. Hull looked as toothless as it gets and after it became painfully clear to everyone involved we piled men forward in search for a second goal.

Campbell had the first chance after a cut back from Alexis, but the Costa-Rican dragged his shot wide. Then Walcott entered the scene. First he failed to hit the target after a brilliant through ball from Cazorla sent him one-on-one, then a no less brilliant lofted pass from Coquelin ended up in the hands of Harper after Theo failed to control it. Frustrating finishing from Walcott, no doubt, but he'll put it right after a couple of games. The most important thing is, Theo still times his runs perfectly and gets into these dangerous positions.

Thankfully, we sealed the game eight minutes from time and who do you think did it? That's right, ladies and gentlemen, Alexis Sanchez. The Chilean received the ball with his back to the goal, took one touch to get it under control, then swerved and shot. I'm not even sure he looked where the shot was going. 2-0 and game over.

The aftermath

That's what Arsene said after the game:

"I believe we had a serious performance. We were in control and it was a positive game. We created many chances and it took us a while until the 82nd minute to get the second goal but overall I think we had a serious, positive and good collective performance."

And on not resting Alexis:

"I was tempted. Giroud was still suspended today and I knew that it was an important game for us. In the end, he always feels ready.

I feel that when the players are confident it’s important to keep them going, especially when they have that physical potential. He recovers very quickly and we’ll see. At the moment he doesn’t look in our tests like he has any fatigue problem."

Well, what more can I add? I good win, we are through to the next round, the players will finally have a week's rest and by the time we face Stoke we should have Flamini, Ramsey, Ozil, Giroud and Welbeck all back. Though personally, I wouldn't sub Coquelin for Flamini. Francis has done really well and demonstrated (to me, at least) that he's more capable than Flam in this role.

That's it for now. Back in a couple of days.

Until then

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin). And subscribe by using the e-mail form on the right

Hull preview + Podolski's loan move

Good evening.

Starting with bit that has everyone's minds: Lukas Podolski has joined Inter Milan on loan. It will last till the end of the season, Inter will pay Poldi's wages in full, while Arsenal will receive around £2 million for this deal. I'm not sure there's a buy-out clause, but it's not the important thing right now.

The essence of it all is that Poldi's stint at the Emirates has effectively drawn to a close. He may or may not return in the summer, but I doubt he'll feature in a competitive game for us again. And it's a bit sad, really. Podolski is not a bad player by any means, in fact, he's our best finisher, but his main problem is that the German isn't suited to our system.

Poldi is not someone in Giroud's mould, he's not that typical centre-forward who can play with his back to the goal. As such, he'll always have Giroud and Welbeck in front of him. But he's also losing (lost?) the contest to play on the left, with the likes of Sanchez, Oxlade and the same Welbeck all preferred to the German. And that's the sticking point. All three, while not possessing Poldi's hammer of a left foot, contribute more to our game, by either tracking back, being better with the ball or just having electric pace.

In an ideal world, Poldi is best suited to a 4-4-2, which relieves him of his defensive duties, while also presents with more opportunities up front. But few teams rely on a 4-4-2 these days. Fewer still will accept one of their players not tracking back to help, even if we are talking about a striker. And so Poldi has become surplus to requirements. Could it have panned out differently? Maybe yes, had the German realised the importance of working hard in defense, but there's no telling. I wish him all the best, though, and sincerely hope he gets his chance to shine at Inter. He didn't get that chance with us, for reasons I've mentioned above.

However, while a move away is probably beneficial to the German and his career, I struggle to see in which way it is beneficial for us. In short, we've just lost a powerful weapon from the bench and, given our current dearth of options in attack overall, the timing of this deal is downright harmful. With all the whispers about Campbell's and Sanogo's potential loan moves, I would be not just surprised, but furious if we don't target a decent winger in this transfer window. After we've bought a CB and a CDM, of course.

All of this leads us back to the task at hand: Hull. The press conference took place today, so we have some bits to chew on.

Team news update

In short, we'll most likely have exactly the same squad (bar Szczesny) and that's genuinely scary. While some measure of rotation can still take place at the back, with Bellerin, Chambers and Monreal all healthy, the midfield and attack have a fat chance of getting some rest.

Of course, the official site says that Welbeck, Sanogo, Ramsey, Flamini and Ozil are all "doubts", meaning some of them can actually make it, this bit from the manager is terrifying:

"The two keepers, Ospina and Martinez, will come in. After that, we will see. I cannot rotate too much either because we need stability. Who comes back? We have the 18 players [that played against Southampton] - nobody else will play."

This gives me the creeps. It's obvious guys like Cazorla, Oxlade and Alexis are on the brink, in the red zone or whatever you call it, yet if they all have to play a 5th game in 14 days I'm not sure anyone will benefit from it. Not us, not them. Though Hull might.

The back four

Ospina will come in, while Martinez takes a place on the bench, so this bit we can be sure of. However, I think that, in case Ospina does well, we need to give him a run of games in the Premier League. This will serve the double purpose of showing Szczesny childish mistakes will not be tolerated, while also ensuring we have a calmer goalkeeper between the sticks. The one who doesn't have these frequent and rather damaging rushes of blood.

I would also rotate the back four. Chambers for Mertesacker and Monreal for Gibbs (both Mert and Gibbo has played a lot) and, depending on Debuchy's energy reserves, introducing Bellerin may also be a good idea. One of the few games Bellerin started this season was against Hull and the Spaniard did pretty well.

The midfield

Didn't like how Chambers looked alongside Coquelin, moreover, Calum will most likely be needed elsewhere. So Rosicky seems the best option. He's relatively fresh, and also happen to be a brilliant playmaker, so the Czech should play in central midfield, in my opinion.

Cazorla, meanwhile, must be bracing himself for another 90 minutes under the striker. There's a slight chance Ozil will return, but even if it happens, it'd be foolish to think the German will start after spending so much time out. An appearance from the bench is possible, but I wouldn't count on it.

The attack

Alexis needs a rest, pure and simple. He looked knackered against the Saints, moreover, I'm not sure CF is his best position. For now, at least. That's why I'll be keeping my fingers crossed for Welbeck or even Sanogo to return.

Assuming they don't, the only replacement we can offer is Campbell, It's either him as a lone striker with Walcott on the right or vice versa. And Oxlade comes in on the left to complete our attacking trio. Stupid, stupid Giroud.

The verdict

I honestly don't know what to expect from this game. All the talk of how we were not fulfilling our potential and should bounce back went down the drain two days ago. Then again, I don't exclude the possibility of that loss being a freak occurrence. It's hard to get 9 points out of 9 in such a busy period, so us getting 6 is actually not that bad. Chelsea has four, while United has five, for instance. The most most accumulated is seven. Nobody has nine.

But tomorrow we have to win. It's vital for our confidence, self-belief and psychology to do that. It's a home game, the first round of the FA Cup, to go out would be a catastrophe, one which can easily send us in a freefall. Give it your all, win it by hook or crook and then there'll be a nice long rest with Ozil, Ramsey and Co providing the light at the end of the tunnel.

Come on you Gunners.

And I'll be back with a review on the 5th.

Until then

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin). And subscribe using a form on the right

Southampton 2-0 Arsenal: new year, same old story

Before I embark on a description of what has happened at St. Mary's, I'd like to say a few words.

You see, I'm a rather emotional man. In the heat of the moment I can say or do something I can regret in a couple of days, or look down on as downright madness in a week. It doesn't mean that I'm fickle or shape my narrative to suit someone's views. So if you'd like to know my opinion on a sensitive subject I have a vested interest in, asking me straight after if occurred is a bad idea. Wait a little while, then go for it.

That's why I rarely write match reviews the day they are played. I know I wouldn't be objective in the slightest and would likely see the world in black-and-white. But even next day or two days after the game I sometimes find it hard to be reasonable.

The matter of being objective wasn't helped in the slightest when I joined Twitter several months ago. There I stumble on all manners of opinions and, while I mistrust the extreme ones, the not-so-extreme are usually reasonable enough to sound plausible. And, as I'm following people with different philosophies, my judgement becomes clouded further still. I try my best to give a fair assessment of what I see, but don't hold it against me if I sometimes get carried away in the heat of the moment. Rather, check back in a couple of days and see if I'm still sticking to my previous post. And now, onto the game.

If there was a part of it I enjoyed, it was the first half an hour. We saw the most of the ball and, despite some warning signs (Pelle hitting the post, Mane almost getting on the end of a dangerous low cross), most will agree we dominated the game during that period. Sanchez could have opened the scoring with a distance effort, Oxlade's shot flew just wide following a clever backheel from Sanchez and some fancy footwork from Cazorla. The Spaniard himself enjoyed the best moment of the half, but his effort was too close to the goalkeeper. I felt that wasted opportunity could cost us, and it did.

I'd say I was surprised by the absurdity of the goal we conceded, but I wasn't. It's Arsenal. If I may slightly paraphrase The Beatles "Run up, run up for the ludicrous goal, step right this way". When it comes to gifting the opposition such goals we are the absolute champions. If there was a trophy for that, we would have been it's holders for a number of years.

Seriously, how can you leave any midfielder in any team with so much time and space to make a pass? But the way the situation was handled after that still makes me want to cry. Why did Szczesny race off his line, but then backed off at the moment it mattered most? Why didn't Koscielny put more pressure on Mane? Why Mertesacker failed to make a clearance being as tall as he is? How could Szczesny, Mertesacker and Koscielny fail to communicate and cover for each other? It was pathetic defending and, though Szczesny is to blame the most (doubt the goal would have happened had he stayed on the line), the sheer horror of the situation is that our supposedly best back four screwed up big time in a relatively simple situation.

The goal knocked the wind out of our sails completely. We could have conceded another before half-time, but this time Szczesny saved. There was a brief period of resurgence at the beginning of the second half and we could have actually been level, but Sanchez's shot was brilliantly parried by Forster. And the we conceded another.

Warden-Prowse put in a low cross and Debuchy intercepted it. The danger seemed averted as Debuchy was ready to whack the ball clear after a first touch, but then Szczesny intervened. He panicked, probably thinking Debuchy didn't have the situation under control and instead of letting the Frenchman finish the job, poked the ball away from him. It fell to Tadic and the latter smashed the ball home from close range. It was game over and we were in damage control mode since then, with Soton having at least three more moments to make it 3-0. Only a combination of Prowse's wastefulness, incredible luck and Debuchy's cool head prevented a third goal from going in.

And that's my biggest problem with yesterday's game. We gave up. With almost thirty minutes to go. There was no hope among the players, no desire to change the situation (bar, probably, the efforts of a completely knackered Alexis). This team has to backbone, no desire to fight back and this baffles me. It's beyond my comprehension.

These are basically the same players as last year, right? Bar Sagna, Fabianski and Vermaelen, these are the same players who topped the table for two-thirds of the campaign. Our defence was at least second-best in the league overall and definitely the best until early February. We didn't have the pacy Welbeck and Alexis, yet we were deadly on the counter. We didn't have Chambers or Debuchy, yet our ability to absorb pressure and keep opponents at arm's length was unmatched.

I fear that our problem goes beyond the injured players. Yes, we have a depleted midfield and attack, but it wasn't because of them we lost yesterday. It was because our supposedly best back five made a complete blunder of the situation.

Some has once again pinned the blame on the manager, but really, was it him who cost us this game? Yes, he could have brought on Campbell and Akpom (earlier), but ask yourselves, do you really think these two would have made a difference? As for Walcott, I have no words. Theo spent thirty minutes on the pitch and do you know what impact he had? A grand total of seven touches and five passes.

We need to somehow pick up the pieces and carry on. We play Hull in two days and I'd suggest rotation should be our priority. Both because we have a lot of knackered players and because I'm starting to really doubt the ability of some. Bring in somebody fresh and see how they fare.

That's it for now. Back tomorrow or on 4th with a preview.

Until then

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)

Southampton preview: break into the top four

Hello everyone.

We play Southampton on New Year's day and a win will finally see us elevate to the 4th. Moreover, should United drop points on their away trip to Mordor Stoke, we'll either be on level points with the Devils or a solitary point behind. So a win can really improve our situation.

Team news

The news is mixed. Rosicky will definitely come back into the side, having been rested during our away game at Upton Park, but there is a doubt over Welbeck:

"We have an uncertainty about Welbeck, who came off with a thigh problem. I think he will be short for Thursday."

Not good, especially since Giroud cannot help us for two more games. However, Theo Walcott is fit to start, if needed be:

"Walcott is involved because he was already in the squad. Of course I judge him a bit short on the competition front but on the fitness front he is ready to play."

The situation with Walcott in interesting. He has been fit for quite some time, yet us still to make an appearance, even as a substitute. If he doesn't start tomorrow, then a start against Hull on the 4th will mean the first start for Theo in exactly a year. As you may recall, the last time Walcott made the first XI was on January 5th against Spurs, where he's torn his knee ligament.

Finally, none of Ramsey, Arteta or Ozil will be in the squad. No word was said on Arteta, Ozil only joined full training today, while with Ramsey the manager is being cautious:

"Ramsey is not available yet. There’s no setback but because he had a setback last year, we have to be very cautious with his thigh - he was out for three months."

I doubt any of the three will be available for Hull, but I quietly hope for all three to make it in time for Stoke. And now, the squad.

The back four

See what I did there? I just excluded the goalkeeper from my usual preview. Get used to it. Szczesny will play if fit and if it's not a cup game. On these occasions I may bring up the subject. For the Premier League and the Champions League, Chezza will start.

As for the defense, I think Gibbs will come in for Monreal and we'll finally see our best back four in action. We'll have the chance to rest Mertesacker or Koscielny against Hull, for now we need both. That means Chambers and Monreal should make the bench, and Bellerin, who is having his best year will likely be omitted. Ah, well. He did well when called upon this season and I'm pretty sure he'll still be involved, as we have a lot of games to play. We may see him in four days, actually.

The midfield

If it was up to me to choose, I'd play a trio of Coquelin, Rosicky and Cazorla. Both because Flamini needs a rest and because I've really liked how Coquelin looked against West Ham. He really outperformed Flam and should be given a chance.

However, as it is for Wenger to decide, I won't be surprised to see Flamini start and not Coquelin. The other two players should remain the same, though: Cazorla, who's having a stormer of a season right now and Rosicky, who was impressive against QPR. Of course, there's a slight chance of Oxlade being reinstated alongside Flamini, but given the absence of Giroud and (most likely) Welbeck, we may need the Ox elsewhere. So Flamini-Rosicky-Cazorla it should be.

The attack

Just how many lives Alexis has? More than nine, definitely, cause he again seems up and ready to start, with Wenger saying:

"Alexis is a guy who has a naturally quick recovery and he has a lot of energy available as well."

He played full games against Liverpool, QPR and West Ham and was spotted waving the manager off during our game against the Hammers. Arsene obviously wanted to take the Chilean off. Alexis protested and stayed on. If he now plays two full games against Southampton and Hull, at a time when he's used to break, I'd be well and truly amazed.

As for who he'll be partnered with in attack, it's hard to guess. I'd say Welbeck and Oxlade, if both are fit and fresh. In case they are not, the Walcott, Pododlski and Sanogo top my list of replacements. Walcott can be a natural solution for both the right winger and the central striker roles, while Sanogo is a good target man, should Arsene decide to utilise one. Podolski is unlikely to start in either scenario. Poor chap.

The verdict

Yes, we have obvious problems in midfield, but:

1. the state of our midfield is still better than it was was in our last game, with Rosicky coming in
2. we still managed to beat West Ham with that midfield and the margin should have been greater, in all fairness
3. the Saints have problems of their own, with Schneiderlin and Clyne both unavailable, due to suspension and injury respectively

As for our attack, we have the requisite depth to cover for Giroud's and (potentially) Welbeck's absences, while in defense we have everyone available (gotta be a first this season). On top of that, we had two encouraging performances in a row and if we can somehow merge these, we should be fine against the Saints.

So come on you Gunners.

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Finally, I wanted to say a couple of words on Podolski. The German expressed his displeasure at not featuring more regularly (once again) and rumours emerged linking him to Inter Milan. Arsene reacted adequately:

“There is only talks. Podolski is a player of Arsenal football club and I want him to stay. Apart from that, what it is to be professional is that as long as you are somewhere, you give your best to justify your wages and your love for the club. I hope that he will still be an Arsenal player at the end of January. Inter? That is a joke. Inter is not serious.”

That settles it. Podoslki can, of course, be unhappy with his current situation, but he's one of these players who provide depth. He can be devastating from the bench and to see Arsene put his foot down and do what's best for the Club is really satisfying. I'm pretty sure we'll discuss Poldi's situation more in the summer, when all parties will be better suited to say goodbye, but for now, he should stay.

That's it for today. Wishing you and your families a very happy New Year and I'll be back here with a customary review either tomorrow on in two days.

Until then

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)