Hull preview: start winning. Now

Good evening everyone.

Football returns tomorrow and we face Hull City at the Emirates. This particular opponent not only brings back good memories, but also presents us with a chance to rack up some points, something we badly need.

In his usual injury update, Arsene informed us about the current state of the squad. The news is mixed, as you'd expect. I'll start with the not-so-pleasant bits.

Ozil is our major concern right now and, unfortunately, he'll be out for at least six weeks, having partially torn some ligaments in his left knee. There was a rumour in circulation, which went to assume Arsene has deliberately kept a knackered Ozil against Chelsea, but the boss was quick to play it down:

"He told me (about the injury) once it was discovered on the scan. He did not tell me anything during the Chelsea game, I did not know. What happened was that at half-time, just before we went out, he had a little pain with his knee but it was not bad. He wanted to go on and I told him, ‘If you don't feel well, tell me and I will take you off straight away'. He never did that during the whole game, and after I left him on because we were in a position where we needed to score a goal and he can deliver the final ball. "

Whether it was actually the case is now history, however I cannot, for the world of me, understand why we have to risk our key player like that. We had Oxlade on the bench, Santi was fresh, yet Arsene persisted and now we'll be without Ozil for quite some time. I think this "six week" talk is the bare minimum, cause initial reports suggested Ozil can spend up to three months on the sidelines. Coming from the German national team I believe the info was pretty accurate. Arsene may just fear the backlash this news can cause.

The other casualty of the international break is Koscielny. However, his problem seems to be chronic, something that hints at us carrying at least some blame. We new his achilles wasn't very good long before the start of the season, yet we've let Vermaelen go and bought nobody. As such we couldn't rotate, played Kos every week and now he's out. Arsene didn't put a time frame on this injury, but I somehow don't think it'll be one game only.

And now the good news. Arteta, Rosicky, Walcott and Gnabry are all fit, though our wingers won't be involved tomorrow. Both Theo and Gerge will take part in today's U-21s game and may travel to Brussels a couple of days from now. Fingers crossed. Arteta and Rosicky are fully fit and will make the squad against the Tigers, while Ramsey will join the main group on Monday and will fly with the team in midweek.

With all this covered, let's try putting a probable squad together.

The back five

I've heard some worrisome rumours that Ospina is carrying a knock, though nothing was said on the subject during the press-conference today. I assume that means the Colombian is alright and, if it was up to me, I'd start him.

I don't have a problem with Szczesny, especially since he's put in a MoM performance against Germany, but the simple truth is that Ospina will probably need some practise before we face Anderlecht. He should get, if fully fit. However, I won't be surprised to see the Pole start the game. Last year Arsene refused to rotate keepers before a cup game, and so Fabianski didn't get any warm-up. Arsene may utilise this strategy once more.

The defense is genuinely scary and I think we can all thank the Lord we weren't in such defensive mess before the Chelsea game. Now we have Kos out and Chambers suspended and this means starts for Monreal at centre-back and Bellerin at right-back. Hayden should make the bench, cause there's just no one else.

The midfield

Flamini did well in his last game and I wonder whether Arsene will be reluctant to remove the Frenchman from the line-up. He's a tad more pacy than Arteta, though there's no doubt the Spaniard sets the tone to our passing better. Tough call, I hope Arteta edges it, though. I'll be a bit more calm with our skipper at the base of the midfield.

Centrally, I'm pretty certain Wilshere and Cazorla will continue. Jack was England's stand-out performer, while he's also done very well in our shirt this season. Moreover, Arsene seems to view Jack a regular starter, so my money's on Wilsh making it.

Cazorla will now have to fill the void left by Ozil and, though I concede Rosicky will get his fair bit of football while the German is injured, Santi is our most obvious go-to solution. He doesn't quite fit Ozil's mould, but then again, no one does. We've lost a really important player in Mesut.

The attack

Welbeck up top is a res judicata for me, but the flanks present an interesting problem.

Walcott and Gnabry are out of the equation for now, but Sanchez is also unlikely to feature, having played the full game for Chile on Wednesday. He should make the bench, but I'd be surprised if we see him start.

This means a definite start for Oxlade on the right, but who'll play on the left? It can either be Podolski or Campbell and the question is, whom does the manager trust less. I'd give Campbell a chance to show himself, but, knowing my betting record, it just means Podolski will start. If he does, I really hopes Poldi puts in a shift.

The verdict

Hull, Sunderland, Burnley, Swansea. These are the teams we face before the next international break and we should be looking at 10 points at the very least. Anything else can put to bed any title claims we may have, not to mention the fans' reaction. On which, by the way, you can read another brilliant piece by Tim Stillman. It really got me thinking about how we perceive our idols and success as a whole. Give it a go, fascinating stuff.

One last thing. I know AGM has taken place yesterday and there were some really interesting things to chew on. I'll try writing about it as soon as I have a bit of time, promise. For now, you can read the essence here and follow me on Twitter for some other interesting stuff.

That's it for today. Here's for the three points tomorrow and I'll back as soon as I can with either AGM's or game's review. Or both.

Until then and come on you Gunners

Formation headache, alternatives and Walcott

Hello everyone.

The final international games took place yesterday and now, as always, we're assessing the damage done to our squad.

Injury update

Ozil will, of course, be out for long, Koscielny's state is unclear, with reports suggesting the Frenchman should be fit to face Hull, but the latest injury worry is Welbeck. Our last-gasp summer purchase seemed to have rolled his ankle two days ago and was subsequently subbed. He went straight down the tunnel with the physiologist, but Hodgson later assured everyone that Welbeck is alright and should be available for the weekend. I sincerely hope it's the case.

However, there is also good news for the Gunners on the injury front. Ramsey is just a couple of days away from joining the main group, which means Arteta is likely to do the same. Arsene also said Giroud is ahead of schedule after Olivier was operated on successfully. Wenger didn't elaborate on what "ahead of schedule" means, so I don't expect the French international to be back earlier than the beginning of December. However, the more interesting bit comes later:

"Welbeck and Giroud can play together in the centre or separately. Welbeck also played on one side to Manchester United. Welbeck played in the same team with Rooney and van Persie. He can play down the sides."

I hope it's only hypothetical. We've all seen how effective Welbeck is down the middle. Also, one of the reasons why Daniel decided to part ways with United was his wide role. I'd rather Arsene explored the possibility of playing Giroud and Welbeck together as two centre-forwards, but we'll cross that bridge when we get Olivier up and running.

For now, though, we have Walcott and Gnabry up and running and their return got me thinking about our possible line-ups. So here goes.

Possible formation and approach with Ozil out

I know it sounds cynical, but it looks like Walcott will be a replacement for Ozil. I mean positionally. This season the German was mostly deployed on the flank, though he was given license to roam to spread the play and do his magic. In this regard Cazorla will most likely pick up the slack, with Wilshere more than able to help out.

It is obvious a fully-fit Walcott should start games, so this means Alexis will be shifted wide left to accommodate Walcott on the right. Until the Englishman is back to his best I'd really like the Ox to be given a run of games.

As paradoxical as it sounds, Ozil's injury + Walcott's return may finally prompt us to return to 4-2-3-1. If not on paper, then definitely on the pitch. With two pure wingers and Cazorla centrally it'll be much closer to 4-2-3-1. Unless Wenger suddenly decides that Cazorla should play on the wing, with Wilshere and Ramsey in the middle of the park. Which is not completely out of question. It is clear Arsene gives every chance to Wilshere, while Ramsey, when fit, also starts. On more than just a couple of occasions this has led to both being deployed centrally. It's fair to say this experiment hasn't quite worked out yet, but it CAN in the future. There's a brilliant piece on the subject from Tim Stillman, over on Goonersphere. Check it out.

Right now, though, it'll make more sense to deploy Cazorla as a playmaker with Rosicky waiting in the wings. It looks like the Czech has a fair number of games coming his way, so he should be getting ready for these.

Finally for today, there's a good piece in the Mirror (yeah, I know, but don't laugh) on our injury crisis. I basically never believe anything written there, so this an exception. Worth checking out.

That's it for now. Sorry it's a bit short, but not much happening still. I'll get back to you in a couple of days, most likely with Hull preview.

Until then

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)

UEFA introduces yet another major change, but is it a fair one?

Hello.

I'll start with the bit that has everyone's attention right now: UEFA is about to introduce a change to the existing seeding system. Namely: the champions of seven highest-ranking countries will go straight into the first pot, along with the defending champions. It is yet unclear what will happen if one of the domestic champions also wins the Champions League. I suspect the eight's country's champion will be seeded in the first pot, but it's pure guesswork. This is the statement:

“It will be ratified later on by the executive committee but it’s a clear recommendation of the club competition’s committee that the seeding system changes in this respect as from next season.

People had difficulties in understanding how the champion of a country is in a lower pot than the third-ranked in that country.

This will give another dynamic with the draw and in the way the groups are composed. It will be approved with the regulations at the start of next year.

The club committee felt that there should be somehow an additional award given to the winners of the different national competitions."

What is also unclear, is how other pots will shape up. Seeding vice-champions in the second, third-place teams in the third and so on could potentially lead to very strong teams being left out of the elite. Which means we'll get several groups of death each year. Which, in its turn, can devalue the competition. But again, I don't know, whether it'll be the case.

Is it a fair system UEFA is trying to organise? Is it better than the one we already have in place?

Remember how a couple of years back the European's Football governing body introduced a path for the champions and a path for the non-champions (I still haven't got used to it)? They argued that very few small-country champions are represented during the group stages, which is not exactly fair.

This overhaul gifted us a couple of surprises, like APOEL and BATE going through to the knock-out stages, but, overall, I think the tournament got less entertaining. It doesn't really matter when the small clubs get knocked out, during the third qualifier or during the group stages. However, you could sort of see what UEFA's goal was. To give the chance to others.

And history repeats itself. You can understand what prompted this current change to the seeding system. You can say it's strange to see the reigning champion in the third pot with a potential chance to land themselves in a tough group, Borussia were even seeded in the fourth pot following 2010-2011 campaign, as they had a low rating. This injustice of sorts greatly hampered the Germans' chances to go through.

However, the current set-up is far from dysfunctional. It takes a historical aspect into consideration. For example, this year only three champions (Benfica, Atletico, Bayern) + the defending champions Real made it into the top pot. But the reasons why Arsenal, Chelsea, Porto and Barcelona made it are fairly obvious: their countries and the teams themselves perform to a very high standard in European competitions on a regular basis. Porto and Benfica are very successful in the Europa League for several years now, Barcelona and Chelsea are very consistent in the Champions League (they often get to the semi-finals), while Arsenal, well, gets into the group stages for 17 consecutive years and gets out of the group for 14-15 years running. Is it fair they go into the first pot for their consistency? I think so.

It may also prompt a change in our approach to the BPL. Which is exactly what we need. If we don't win, we'll find ourselves in a tough group once more. Do we want to have Barca or Bayern in our group? So this change can also be for the better. It can finally lead us to realise just how important winning the championship is.

Finally for today, all our international players seem to have come through the first round of internationals unscathed, which is certainly good news, considering five our of them featured for England alone. Even more, Wilshere got MoM for his performance, while Welbeck scored one of the goals from a Chamberlain assist. Chambers and Gibbs both completed 90 minutes and have impressed, for all I know. The most important thing they are all healthy, of course.

That's it for today. Back with fresh news in a couple of days.

Until then

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)

Injury situation worsens as Ozil becomes the latest fallen

I originally intended to get back a bit earlier, but nothing worth mentioning happened. Now, unfortunately, we do have something to talk about. I wish we didn't.

Yesterday news of Ozil's injury emerged and Arsenal's fan base erupted. With Ramsey and Arteta already out, it stretches our midfield situation to almost breaking point. What is much more important, however, is that we've lost our most valuable player, a man around whom the whole team can be built.

Remember how everyone said we're playing better without Ozil and then collectively bemoaned his absence at the start of the season? Back in August we were far from a cohesive unit and the German's return sparked us into life. Twice Ozil was deployed centrally after his come-back and on both occasions we've delivered stellar performances (3-0 against Villa and 4-1 against Gala). The German was less noticeable on the flank, but I've already stated, despite Mesut not buzzing around like Sanchez, he's no less influential. Even during the last game against Chelsea (when our number 10 was clearly nursing an injury), he fared better, statistically-wise, than Fabregas. We don't have a direct replacement for Ozil and I'm certain we're going to miss Mesut thoroughly.

I don't, for that reason, understand the reaction of some Arsenal "fans", who say Ozil was nicking a living anyway and there are better players on our team. There aren't. But what strikes me as the most stupid thing about such "fans" behavior, is how they say we should have signed Cesc. They've been repeating this since the start of the season, though their reasoning is, let's say, adaptable. They just take a jab when a merest opportunity presents itself. Disgusting.

Who could have foreseen an injury to the German? Or the downturn in Ramsey's form? We really do have a wealth of attacking players and re-signing Cesc was a risk, which the manager didn't take. Let's not forget the simple fact, that the Spaniard only plays in central midfield at Chelsea because he has Matic alongside him to do all the dirty work. We couldn't have played Cesc there, cause we don't have a powerful holding DM. Both Arteta and Flamini require help and they wouldn't have got much from Fabregas. While using Cesc as a 10 would have meant sacrificing Ozil. And, despite all the critic coming his way, I still think the German is the better player.

In an even worse twist, Koscielny seems to have been withdrawn from France's national team due to an achilles injury. We've known for some time now the Frenchman was carrying one, but we just couldn't allow to rest him. It all comes down to lack of proper cover, again. Had Debuchy been alright, we could have tried playing a central pairing of Mertesacker and Chambers, but Debuchy is out till new year. Moreover, this duo didn't seem to work properly on the only occasion we've seen it: against Everton.

All of this means Koscielny had to play and now we are at the crossroads. We all know how an injury to the achilles deteriorates over time. You can play with it for a while, but the longer you play, the more you aggravate it. And so the treatment would also take longer. Right now Kos does seem to be in a passable condition, so the decision to keep him wrapped in cotton wool is more of a precaution, but the Frenchman will require a lengthy treatment at some point. I only hope he holds out till January, when we'll have the chance to furiously search the transfer market for at least one centre-back. Two is better.

This grim news diverts our attention from the real problem: we're in the middle of yet another injury crisis and it's not even the middle of October. Debuchy and Giroud will be sidelined till at least early December and Ozil will be out longer still. And that's not to mention short-termers (Arteta, Ramsey), newly-returned Theo and Gnabry and a brittle French duo of Sanogo and Diaby. We have, at the very least, five injured players, none of whom will take part in our next game, and a suspended Chambers, of course. How can we possibly fight for anything with half the team out?!

What interests me most, is how exactly we manage to gather so many injures every year. It's been ongoing, yet no one can solve it. We've brought in Shad Forsythe and, while the new man will need some time, the situation definitely hasn't improved. We've conducted countless investigations into any possible reasons behind these injures and haven't found out anything.

What is it we are doing wrong? Is it the pitch at the Emirates, is it training methods? Players carrying on despite nursing knocks, like Ozil and before him, Wilshere? Perhaps short recovery periods after games? Is it down to our style of football or maybe we've just assembled the world's most brittle collaction of players? A combination of all these factors? I wish I knew.

I cannot express how tired I am to experience this Groundhog Day year after year after year. We've failed to challenge for trophies more than once because of our walking wounded and I fear this situation is still not behind us. It's sad really. All the good work in the transfer market undone and it's still early days. So much work to get the Club out of the financial hole and to work us into a position when we can genuinely compete, only for the injures to dent our hopes.

Alright, I think it's enough for today. Back in a couple of days, when I'll (hopefully) have better news.

Until then

Cheslea 2-0 Arsenal: a dignified loss

Morning everyone.

Our curse of not being able to overpower Jose Mourinho's Chelsea continued yesterday, as we suffered the first loss this year. Little actual football happened during the ninety minutes, so instead of describing how each half went (as I usually do), I'll just present to you other points of interest.

Our squad and set-up

There was only one change compared to our midweek game: Wilshere for Oxlade-Chamberlain. We also reverted to 4-1-4-1, but, surprisingly, not Cazorla was asked to play on the flank. Instead, Ozil did, and the question of whether the German would have performed better under the striker is an open one. However, thanks to 7amkickoff, we know that, statistically-wise, Ozil fared better than Cesc. The fact that Ozil doesn't run around as Sanchez does, doesn't mean he's contributed less.

Hazard, Cahill and Mourinho

We played some very decent football before conceding. Sure, the moments were few and far between, but we looked well-organised and disciplined, with Flamini rocking the midfield. And then, I'd say against the run of play, we conceded. Hazard picked the ball some 30 yards from goal, breezed past Cazorla, rounded off Flamini and then stormed into the box, wrong-footing Koscielny in the process. The Frenchman had little choice, but to foul the Belgian. Eden converted calmly from the spot.

This forced Arsenal to take more decisive action. Wilshere was one-on-one after a good move, but the Englishman's clumsy first touch allowed Cech to claim the ball. Minutes before that, a scuffle on the sidelines broke out and with good reason to back it: Cahill two-footed Sanchez. Arsene demanded red and thus entered into a conflict with Mourinho, pushing the latter. Wenger later stated he didn't regret this decision:

"What is there to regret after that? I wanted to go from A to B and somebody confronted me in between without any sign of welcome."

If Arsene then knocked Mourinho down and stamped on his face I would have said personally said the Frenchman deserves a knighthood. As it is, I can just applause this decision. I don't care what happened, I don't care what Mourinho said or did, the Portuguese is a despicable personality and deserves all the pushes in the world.

Oscar, Cesc and the second goal

Cesc was booed. Simple as that. The three thousand fans supporting Arsenal were heard loud and clear when the Spaniard received the ball. Of our players, only Wilshere (understandable) and Welbeck showed their contempt towards Cesc. Wilshere just turned away when Fabregas wanted to talk to him and Welbeck two-footed the Spaniard late in the game, knowing full-well he won't get the ball. Two knighthoods, please.

However, it didn't stop Cesc from making a decisive contribution. When we lost the ball some fifteen minutes from time, our former skipper clipped an inch-perfect pass over our defense and Costa chipped Szczesny. Game over and we were in damage control mode since that second goal.

On a side note, we should have been given a penalty when Fabregas clearly stopped the ball with his hand, but I think it was already 2-0 at that point.

Oh, and Oscar. Almost as despicable as Mourinho. He committed these nasty fouls when the ref wasn't looking, but only received a yellow very late in the game, when in fairness he could have been sent off for these antics in the first half. Disgusting behaviour. He's a true Chelsea player in that regard.

Thoughts on performance and result

"It was a very intense game. Very tight as well. It was about not making a mistake and not giving the first goal away. After that we were 1-0 down. We had good opportunities in the first half and we have to turn these into dangerous situations and finish them. After that in the second half it was all us and we were a bit unlucky. We made a mistake on the second goal, and the second goal killed the game off."

The result aside, I think we did pretty well. We were well-organised from the first minute to the last, we had some chances (Wilshere, Cazorla) and I'm starting to think this 4-1-4-1 can do us a lot of good against the big teams. We may still be more efficient playing 4-2-3-1 with lesser opposition, but we'll see.

A loss leaves us with ten points after seven games, however, and you really start to lament these dropped points against Tottenham and Leicester. 14 points is a much more respectable number. Let's not forget, though, that United, LIverpool and the likes, who now boast how good they are, still have both City and Chelsea to play. And if they get four points combined from four games, I'd be really surprised.

Now we have a bit of a break before our next game. I don't think the players should beat themselves up because we lost to a probable champion. We had a good, committed performance, and been as organised as it gets. So play for the national sides, return and carry on as usual. It's not pleasant to lose, but we've lost only just and given our everything.

So don't feel too down. Have a good week and I'll be back with you in a couple of days.

Until then

Follow me on Twitter (@AlexBaguzin)